Baltimore Orioles
78-81 · 4th in AL East, 18 GB
Offense cooling latelyLHP Trevor Rogers · Command specialist
@
New York Yankees
92-67 · 2nd in AL East, 4 GB
Steady at the plateBrendan Beck
Team Identity
Baltimore Orioles
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,159 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be station-to-station. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAverage50
ContactWell Below18
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg84
SpeedWell Below14
RISPAverage49
Recent FormTrending Down
Walk rate is down 26% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
New York Yankees
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,170 PA.
A power-hitting, patient offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be strikeout-prone.
PowerAbove Avg79
ContactWell Below10
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg71
SpeedAverage65
RISPBelow Avg34
Recent FormHolding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Yankees bring the more power-hitting profile, while Orioles lean on being patient.
Swing Factor
Yankees rank in the 79th percentile in extra-base production, while Trevor Rogers sits in the 32nd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Orioles are trending down and Yankees are holding steady over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Trevor Rogers limit Yankees' power?
Yankees rank in the 79th percentile in extra-base production, while Trevor Rogers sits in the 32nd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · YankeesYankees: 0.349 TB/PATrevor Rogers: 0.369 TB/PA allowed (699 PA)High confidence
Can Trevor Rogers miss enough bats?
Trevor Rogers strikes hitters out at a 21.9% clip (54th percentile); Yankees carry a 23.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · YankeesTrevor Rogers: 21.9% K rateYankees: 23.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Trevor Rogers command the strike zone?
Yankees walk in 9.1% of trips; Trevor Rogers allows walks sparingly (5.6%).
Edge · Trevor RogersYankees: 9.1% walk rateTrevor Rogers: 5.6% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Yankees handle left-handers?
Yankees have produced better against left-handers this season (0.361 vs. 0.349 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Yankeesvs left-handers: 0.361 TB/PA (2001 PA)overall: 0.349 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Trevor Rogers
Baltimore Orioles · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.9/start
Hits allowed5.8/start
6+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 66+ Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
22% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Austin Wells
New York Yankees · 0.250 hit rate · 0.625 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 149% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
George Lombard Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.289 hit rate · 0.600 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L109 / 10L2516 / 255-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 108% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 20%.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
Baltimore Orioles · 0.297 hit rate · 0.622 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 45% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 22%.
Luis Garcia Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.091 hit rate · 0.091 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 81% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
Spencer Jones
New York Yankees · 0.114 hit rate · 0.314 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2517 / 25
On-base rate is down 56% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 43%.
Dylan Beavers
Baltimore Orioles · 0.098 hit rate · 0.122 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 64% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 34%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
77
George Lombard Jr.
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
73
Ben Rice
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Adley Rutschman
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
69
Gunnar Henderson
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
66
Pete Alonso
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
66
Coby Mayo
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
UncertainLow confidence
Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Yankees bring more power.
Early edge Yankees Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Moderate
- At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
- Orioles are trending down; Yankees are trending steady.
Storylines to Watch
Can Yankees handle Trevor Rogers's strikeout stuff?
Yankees have been a below-average contact team while Trevor Rogers misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Yankees contact percentile: 10
Is Austin Wells the one to watch?
Austin Wells enters as Yankees' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 149% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
0.250 hit rate · 0.625 TB/PA · 0.146 hit rate · 0.251 TB/PA
Can Luis Garcia Jr. snap out of it?
Luis Garcia Jr. has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 81% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
0.091 hit rate · 0.091 TB/PA · 0.279 hit rate · 0.478 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-25, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.