Sports Today Tuesday, September 22
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 22, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers
98-58 · 1st in NL Central
Bats heating up
RHP Dustin May · Balanced starter
@
Philadelphia Phillies
86-70 · 2nd in NL East, 6 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Zack Wheeler · Elite strikeout stuff
MLB · Citizens Bank Park · 3:40 PM PT

Team Identity

Milwaukee Brewers
Season-to-date, 156 games, 6,335 PA.
An opportunistic, patient offense that cashes in scoring chances, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Well Below19
Contact
Above Avg76
Plate Discipline
Elite95
Speed
Above Avg67
RISP
Elite97
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 15% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Philadelphia Phillies
Season-to-date, 156 games, 6,029 PA.
An opportunistic, aggressive offense that cashes in scoring chances. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Average57
Contact
Average46
Plate Discipline
Average49
Speed
Above Avg72
RISP
Elite94
Recent Form
Trending Down
Total bases per PA is down 19% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Phillies' offense is defined by being opportunistic, and this game tests whether Brewers can match it.

Swing Factor

Zack Wheeler strikes hitters out at a 29.0% clip (92nd percentile); Brewers carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Brewers are trending up and Phillies are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Zack Wheeler miss enough bats?
Zack Wheeler strikes hitters out at a 29.0% clip (92nd percentile); Brewers carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · BrewersZack Wheeler: 29.0% K rateBrewers: 20.8% K rateHigh confidence
Can Zack Wheeler command the strike zone?
Brewers walk in 10.1% of trips; Zack Wheeler allows walks sparingly (7.5%).
Edge · Zack WheelerBrewers: 10.1% walk rateZack Wheeler: 7.5% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Zack Wheeler limit Brewers' power?
Brewers rank in the 19th percentile in extra-base production, while Zack Wheeler sits in the 58th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Zack WheelerBrewers: 0.337 TB/PAZack Wheeler: 0.322 TB/PA allowed (611 PA)High confidence
Can Dustin May miss enough bats?
Dustin May strikes hitters out at a 22.1% clip (57th percentile); Phillies carry a 21.2% strikeout rate.
Edge · PhilliesDustin May: 22.1% K ratePhillies: 21.2% K rateHigh confidence
How do Brewers handle right-handers?
Brewers have produced better against right-handers this season (0.345 vs. 0.337 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Brewersvs right-handers: 0.345 TB/PA (4405 PA)overall: 0.337 TB/PAModerate confidence

Pitcher Trends

Dustin May
Dustin May
Milwaukee Brewers · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.2/start
Hits allowed4.2/start
6 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
22% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Zack Wheeler
Zack Wheeler
Philadelphia Phillies · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts6.4/start
Hits allowed5.0/start
6+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
29% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

William Contreras
William Contreras
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.250 hit rate · 0.600 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L109 / 10L2520 / 259-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 75% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
Alec Bohm
Alec Bohm
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.302 hit rate · 0.349 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2517 / 252-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 47% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
Joey Ortiz
Joey Ortiz
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.342 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L109 / 10L2520 / 25
Hit rate is up 58% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 9 games.
Brandon Marsh
Brandon Marsh
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.083 hit rate · 0.083 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L259 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 78% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
David Hamilton
David Hamilton
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.118 hit rate · 0.118 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2513 / 25
On-base rate is down 59% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 41%.
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.167 hit rate · 0.250 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2517 / 25
On-base rate is down 37% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 36%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

82
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
80
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
72
William Contreras
William Contreras
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
72
Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Alec Bohm
Alec Bohm
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted

Expected Game Shape

Starter-drivenModerate confidence

Runs may be at a premium if the starters hold form. Brewers bring stronger recent momentum. Phillies bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.

Early edge Phillies Driver Pitching and command Volatility Elevated
  • Both probable starters grade around the 62nd percentile in combined suppression.
  • Brewers are trending up; Phillies are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Does Phillies' power tilt the game?
Phillies bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Brewers power pct 19 vs Phillies 57
Can Brandon Marsh snap out of it?
Brandon Marsh has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 78% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
0.083 hit rate · 0.083 TB/PA · 0.242 hit rate · 0.378 TB/PA
Is William Contreras the one to watch?
William Contreras enters as Brewers' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 75% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
0.250 hit rate · 0.600 TB/PA · 0.228 hit rate · 0.343 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-22, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.