Milwaukee Brewers
95-57 · 1st in NL Central
Bats heating upLHP Kyle Harrison · Elite strikeout stuff · plus control
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
75-77 · 3rd in NL Central, 20 GB
Bats heating upRHP Wilber Dotel · High-strikeout arm
Team Identity
Milwaukee Brewers
Season-to-date, 152 games, 6,174 PA.
An opportunistic, patient offense that cashes in scoring chances, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerWell Below21
ContactAbove Avg80
Plate DisciplineElite96
SpeedAverage63
RISPElite97
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 20% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Season-to-date, 152 games, 6,111 PA.
An aggressive, patient offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerBelow Avg39
ContactAverage64
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg69
SpeedAbove Avg82
RISPAbove Avg69
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 9% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Pirates bring the more aggressive profile, while Brewers lean on being opportunistic.
Swing Factor
Kyle Harrison strikes hitters out at a 27.5% clip (87th percentile); Pirates carry a 23.2% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Brewers are trending up and Pirates are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Kyle Harrison miss enough bats?
Kyle Harrison strikes hitters out at a 27.5% clip (87th percentile); Pirates carry a 23.2% strikeout rate.
Edge · PiratesKyle Harrison: 27.5% K ratePirates: 23.2% K rateHigh confidence
Can Wilber Dotel limit Brewers' power?
Brewers rank in the 21st percentile in extra-base production, while Wilber Dotel sits in the 71st percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Wilber DotelBrewers: 0.339 TB/PAWilber Dotel: 0.299 TB/PA allowed (154 PA)Moderate confidence
Can Wilber Dotel miss enough bats?
Wilber Dotel strikes hitters out at a 23.4% clip (67th percentile); Brewers carry a 20.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · BrewersWilber Dotel: 23.4% K rateBrewers: 20.7% K rateModerate confidence
Can Wilber Dotel command the strike zone?
Brewers walk in 10.1% of trips; Wilber Dotel allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.1%).
Edge · BrewersBrewers: 10.1% walk rateWilber Dotel: 9.1% walks allowedModerate confidence
Can Kyle Harrison limit Pirates' power?
Pirates rank in the 39th percentile in extra-base production, while Kyle Harrison sits in the 17th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · PiratesPirates: 0.344 TB/PAKyle Harrison: 0.395 TB/PA allowed (488 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Kyle Harrison
Milwaukee Brewers · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.8/start
Hits allowed5.9/start
8+ Hits Allowed — 3 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
27% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Brice Turang
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.271 hit rate · 0.479 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 25
On-base rate is up 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
Rafael Flores
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.441 hit rate · 0.647 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L1010 / 10L2515 / 2510-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 144% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
Garrett Mitchell
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.297 hit rate · 0.568 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 66% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 24%.
Sal Frelick
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.105 hit rate · 0.105 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L259 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 63% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games.
Luis Lara
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.182 hit rate · 0.212 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2519 / 252-game hit streak
On-base rate is down 35% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 24%.
David Hamilton
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.167 hit rate · 0.167 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 40% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
80
Jackson Chourio
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
80
Brice Turang
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Konnor Griffin
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
70
Rafael Flores
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Oneil Cruz
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
69
Nick Gonzales
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
Contact-heavyModerate confidence
Offense likely comes from stringing hits together. Pirates bring more power.
Early edge Brewers Driver Traffic and situational hitting Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 53rd percentile in combined suppression.
- Brewers are trending up; Pirates are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Is Brice Turang the one to watch?
Brice Turang enters as Brewers' hottest bat. On-base rate is up 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
0.271 hit rate · 0.479 TB/PA · 0.214 hit rate · 0.354 TB/PA
Can Sal Frelick snap out of it?
Sal Frelick has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 63% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games.
0.105 hit rate · 0.105 TB/PA · 0.203 hit rate · 0.285 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-17, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.