Sports Today Wednesday, September 16
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 16, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers
94-57 · 1st in NL Central
Bats heating up
RHP Logan Henderson · Elite strikeout stuff · plus control
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
75-76 · 3rd in NL Central, 19 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Jared Jones · Elite strikeout stuff
MLB · PNC Park · 3:40 PM PT

Team Identity

Milwaukee Brewers
Season-to-date, 150 games, 6,087 PA.
A patient, opportunistic offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Well Below23
Contact
Above Avg79
Plate Discipline
Elite96
Speed
Average63
RISP
Elite96
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 23% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Season-to-date, 150 games, 6,035 PA.
An aggressive, patient offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Below Avg33
Contact
Average62
Plate Discipline
Above Avg69
Speed
Above Avg84
RISP
Above Avg69
Recent Form
Trending Down
Total bases per PA is down 13% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Pirates bring the more aggressive profile, while Brewers lean on being patient.

Swing Factor

Jared Jones strikes hitters out at a 27.3% clip (87th percentile); Brewers carry a 20.6% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Brewers are trending up and Pirates are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Jared Jones miss enough bats?
Jared Jones strikes hitters out at a 27.3% clip (87th percentile); Brewers carry a 20.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · BrewersJared Jones: 27.3% K rateBrewers: 20.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can Logan Henderson miss enough bats?
Logan Henderson strikes hitters out at a 29.6% clip (94th percentile); Pirates carry a 23.1% strikeout rate.
Edge · PiratesLogan Henderson: 29.6% K ratePirates: 23.1% K rateHigh confidence
Can Jared Jones command the strike zone?
Brewers walk in 10.1% of trips; Jared Jones allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.2%).
Edge · Jared JonesBrewers: 10.1% walk rateJared Jones: 8.2% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Logan Henderson limit Pirates' power?
Pirates rank in the 33rd percentile in extra-base production, while Logan Henderson sits in the 67th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Logan HendersonPirates: 0.343 TB/PALogan Henderson: 0.304 TB/PA allowed (335 PA)High confidence
Can Jared Jones limit Brewers' power?
Brewers rank in the 23rd percentile in extra-base production, while Jared Jones sits in the 44th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Jared JonesBrewers: 0.340 TB/PAJared Jones: 0.347 TB/PA allowed (366 PA)High confidence

Pitcher Trends

Logan Henderson
Logan Henderson
Milwaukee Brewers · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts6.5/start
Hits allowed3.1/start
6+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 6 of last 6
30% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Jared Jones
Jared Jones
Pittsburgh Pirates · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts5.9/start
Hits allowed4.5/start
6+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
27% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Brice Turang
Brice Turang
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.326 hit rate · 0.543 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 253-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 63% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.333 hit rate · 0.611 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 80% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games.
Joey Ortiz
Joey Ortiz
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.375 hit rate · 0.542 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L108 / 10L2520 / 255-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 74% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 7 games.
Luis Lara
Luis Lara
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.148 hit rate · 0.148 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
Sal Frelick
Sal Frelick
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.130 hit rate · 0.174 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L259 / 25
On-base rate is down 55% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games.
Konnor Griffin
Konnor Griffin
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.146 hit rate · 0.220 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2516 / 25
Hit rate is down 40% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games.

Players Positioned to Succeed

80
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
78
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
75
William Contreras
William Contreras
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
75
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
74
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Nick Gonzales
Nick Gonzales
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted

Expected Game Shape

Starter-drivenModerate confidence

Runs may be at a premium if the starters hold form. Brewers bring stronger recent momentum. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.

Early edge Brewers Driver Pitching and command Volatility Elevated
  • Both probable starters grade around the 75th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Brewers are trending up; Pirates are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Is Brice Turang the one to watch?
Brice Turang enters as Brewers' hottest bat. On-base rate is up 63% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
0.326 hit rate · 0.543 TB/PA · 0.212 hit rate · 0.353 TB/PA
Can Luis Lara snap out of it?
Luis Lara has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
0.148 hit rate · 0.148 TB/PA · 0.233 hit rate · 0.321 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-16, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.