Sports Today Sunday, September 20
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 20, 2026
Kansas City Royals
67-88 · 5th in AL Central, 13 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Michael Wacha · Command specialist
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
78-77 · 3rd in NL Central, 19 GB
Bats heating up
RHP Lake Bachar · High-strikeout arm
MLB · PNC Park · 10:35 AM PT

Team Identity

Kansas City Royals
Season-to-date, 155 games, 6,048 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be inconsistent with runners in scoring position. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Average48
Contact
Average53
Plate Discipline
Well Below22
Speed
Above Avg77
RISP
Well Below11
Recent Form
Trending Down
Total bases per PA is down 16% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Season-to-date, 155 games, 6,231 PA.
An aggressive, opportunistic offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Average46
Contact
Average66
Plate Discipline
Above Avg68
Speed
Above Avg82
RISP
Above Avg74
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 11% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Pirates' offense is defined by being aggressive, and this game tests whether Royals can match it.

Swing Factor

Michael Wacha strikes hitters out at a 19.1% clip (35th percentile); Pirates carry a 23.1% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Royals are trending down and Pirates are trending up over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Michael Wacha miss enough bats?
Michael Wacha strikes hitters out at a 19.1% clip (35th percentile); Pirates carry a 23.1% strikeout rate.
Edge · PiratesMichael Wacha: 19.1% K ratePirates: 23.1% K rateHigh confidence
Can Lake Bachar command the strike zone?
Royals walk in 8.2% of trips; Lake Bachar allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.9%).
Edge · Lake BacharRoyals: 8.2% walk rateLake Bachar: 9.9% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Lake Bachar miss enough bats?
Lake Bachar strikes hitters out at a 24.4% clip (72nd percentile); Royals carry a 20.2% strikeout rate.
Edge · RoyalsLake Bachar: 24.4% K rateRoyals: 20.2% K rateHigh confidence
Can Lake Bachar limit Royals' power?
Royals rank in the 48th percentile in extra-base production, while Lake Bachar sits in the 73rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Lake BacharRoyals: 0.341 TB/PALake Bachar: 0.295 TB/PA allowed (352 PA)High confidence
Can Michael Wacha command the strike zone?
Pirates walk in 8.8% of trips; Michael Wacha allows walks sparingly (6.3%).
Edge · Michael WachaPirates: 8.8% walk rateMichael Wacha: 6.3% walks allowedHigh confidence

Pitcher Trends

Michael Wacha
Michael Wacha
Kansas City Royals · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.8/start
Hits allowed4.5/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
19% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Lake Bachar
Lake Bachar
Pittsburgh Pirates · 4 starts
SP
Strikeouts2.2/start
Hits allowed1.5/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 44 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 4
24% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.282 hit rate · 0.615 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L109 / 10L2518 / 257-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 51% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 9 games.
Henry Davis
Henry Davis
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.111 hit rate · 0.333 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L259 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 32% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.311 hit rate · 0.467 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2517 / 254-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 35% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 27%.
Jac Caglianone
Jac Caglianone
Kansas City Royals · 0.118 hit rate · 0.118 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 73% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 47%.
Kyle Isbel
Kyle Isbel
Kansas City Royals · 0.138 hit rate · 0.138 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 53% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games.
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.152 hit rate · 0.283 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2516 / 25
On-base rate is down 40% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games.

Players Positioned to Succeed

83
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
77
Konnor Griffin
Konnor Griffin
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Bobby Witt Jr.
Bobby Witt Jr.
1+ Hit
Kansas City Royals
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Michael Massey
Michael Massey
1+ Hit
Kansas City Royals
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
69
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Pirates bring stronger recent momentum. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.

Early edge Pirates Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Elevated
  • Both probable starters grade around the 59th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Royals are trending down; Pirates are trending up.

Storylines to Watch

Can Jac Caglianone snap out of it?
Jac Caglianone has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 73% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 47%.
0.118 hit rate · 0.118 TB/PA · 0.253 hit rate · 0.442 TB/PA
Is Brandon Lowe the one to watch?
Brandon Lowe enters as Pirates' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 51% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 9 games.
0.282 hit rate · 0.615 TB/PA · 0.220 hit rate · 0.408 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-20, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.