Miami Marlins
76-77 · 3rd in NL East, 13 GB
Bats heating upRHP Tyler Phillips · Pitches to contact
@
San Diego Padres
84-69 · 2nd in NL West, 9 GB
Bats heating upRHP Nick Pivetta · Elite strikeout stuff · plus control
Team Identity
Miami Marlins
Season-to-date, 153 games, 6,026 PA.
An aggressive, contact-oriented offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerBelow Avg27
ContactAbove Avg67
Plate DisciplineAverage51
SpeedAbove Avg77
RISPBelow Avg43
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 16% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
San Diego Padres
Season-to-date, 153 games, 5,961 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerBelow Avg31
ContactBelow Avg45
Plate DisciplineAverage56
SpeedAbove Avg77
RISPAverage56
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 37% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Padres' offense is defined by being aggressive, and this game tests whether Marlins can match it.
Swing Factor
Nick Pivetta strikes hitters out at a 31.0% clip (96th percentile); Marlins carry a 21.0% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Marlins are trending up and Padres are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Nick Pivetta miss enough bats?
Nick Pivetta strikes hitters out at a 31.0% clip (96th percentile); Marlins carry a 21.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · MarlinsNick Pivetta: 31.0% K rateMarlins: 21.0% K rateLow confidence
Can Nick Pivetta limit Marlins' power?
Marlins rank in the 27th percentile in extra-base production, while Nick Pivetta sits in the 85th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Nick PivettaMarlins: 0.340 TB/PANick Pivetta: 0.270 TB/PA allowed (100 PA)Low confidence
Can Tyler Phillips miss enough bats?
Tyler Phillips strikes hitters out at a 18.1% clip (26th percentile); Padres carry a 20.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · PadresTyler Phillips: 18.1% K ratePadres: 20.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Tyler Phillips limit Padres' power?
Padres rank in the 31st percentile in extra-base production, while Tyler Phillips sits in the 51st percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Tyler PhillipsPadres: 0.338 TB/PATyler Phillips: 0.335 TB/PA allowed (531 PA)High confidence
How do Marlins handle right-handers?
Marlins have produced better against right-handers this season (0.349 vs. 0.340 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Marlinsvs right-handers: 0.349 TB/PA (4378 PA)overall: 0.340 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Tyler Phillips
Miami Marlins · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.4/start
Hits allowed3.9/start
5 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
18% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Nick Pivetta
San Diego Padres · 5 starts
Strikeouts5.4/start
Hits allowed3.8/start
8+ Strikeouts — 2 of last 54 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 5
31% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Jackson Merrill
San Diego Padres · 0.457 hit rate · 0.804 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L109 / 10L2516 / 258-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 123% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
Jakob Marsee
Miami Marlins · 0.370 hit rate · 0.587 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 123% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 13%.
Graham Pauley
Miami Marlins · 0.250 hit rate · 0.550 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
On-base rate is up 82% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 5 games.
Kyle Stowers
Miami Marlins · 0.111 hit rate · 0.156 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2517 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 61% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 36%.
Esteury Ruiz
Miami Marlins · 0.100 hit rate · 0.150 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L258 / 25
On-base rate is down 56% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games.
Luis Campusano
San Diego Padres · 0.171 hit rate · 0.268 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2511 / 25
On-base rate is down 33% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
88
Fernando Tatis Jr.
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
83
Jackson Merrill
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
82
Otto Lopez
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
82
Jakob Marsee
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
80
Ty France
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
77
Heriberto Hernandez
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
Starter-drivenModerate confidence
Runs may be at a premium if the starters hold form. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.
Early edge Padres Driver Pitching and command Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 64th percentile in combined suppression.
- Marlins are trending up; Padres are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Is Jackson Merrill the one to watch?
Jackson Merrill enters as Padres' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 123% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
0.457 hit rate · 0.804 TB/PA · 0.208 hit rate · 0.361 TB/PA
Can Kyle Stowers snap out of it?
Kyle Stowers has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 61% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 36%.
0.111 hit rate · 0.156 TB/PA · 0.208 hit rate · 0.398 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-18, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.