Arizona Diamondbacks
85-74 · 3rd in NL West, 12 GB
Bats heating upRHP Brandon Pfaadt · Pitches to contact
@
San Diego Padres
89-70 · 2nd in NL West, 8 GB
Bats heating upRHP Casey Mize · Command specialist
Team Identity
Arizona Diamondbacks
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,237 PA.
A contact-oriented offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage53
ContactAbove Avg73
Plate DisciplineAverage56
SpeedAverage65
RISPAverage56
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 33% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
San Diego Padres
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,203 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerBelow Avg33
ContactBelow Avg43
Plate DisciplineAverage51
SpeedAbove Avg80
RISPAverage64
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 26% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Padres bring the more aggressive profile, while D-backs lean on being contact-oriented.
Swing Factor
Brandon Pfaadt strikes hitters out at a 16.2% clip (14th percentile); Padres carry a 20.7% strikeout rate.
Momentum
D-backs are trending up and Padres are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Brandon Pfaadt miss enough bats?
Brandon Pfaadt strikes hitters out at a 16.2% clip (14th percentile); Padres carry a 20.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · PadresBrandon Pfaadt: 16.2% K ratePadres: 20.7% K rateHigh confidence
Can Casey Mize miss enough bats?
Casey Mize strikes hitters out at a 19.7% clip (38th percentile); D-backs carry a 18.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · D-backsCasey Mize: 19.7% K rateD-backs: 18.8% K rateHigh confidence
Can Casey Mize limit D-backs' power?
D-backs rank in the 53rd percentile in extra-base production, while Casey Mize sits in the 38th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · D-backsD-backs: 0.345 TB/PACasey Mize: 0.360 TB/PA allowed (553 PA)High confidence
How do D-backs handle right-handers?
D-backs have produced worse against right-handers this season (0.332 vs. 0.345 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Casey Mizevs right-handers: 0.332 TB/PA (4529 PA)overall: 0.345 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Brandon Pfaadt limit Padres' power?
Padres rank in the 33rd percentile in extra-base production, while Brandon Pfaadt sits in the 41st percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Brandon PfaadtPadres: 0.338 TB/PABrandon Pfaadt: 0.352 TB/PA allowed (537 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Brandon Pfaadt
Arizona Diamondbacks · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.4/start
Hits allowed5.4/start
6+ Hits Allowed — 4 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
16% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Casey Mize
San Diego Padres · 8 starts
Strikeouts2.9/start
Hits allowed5.0/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
20% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Pavin Smith
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.304 hit rate · 0.652 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2512 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 291% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games.
Nolan Arenado
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.429 hit rate · 0.833 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L1010 / 10L2519 / 2510-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 122% over his prior baseline, with hits in 10 of his last 10 games.
Jake Cronenworth
San Diego Padres · 0.317 hit rate · 0.537 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L107 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 119% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games.
Tim Tawa
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.086 hit rate · 0.229 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2513 / 25
Hit rate is down 60% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games.
Manny Machado
San Diego Padres · 0.122 hit rate · 0.245 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2515 / 25
On-base rate is down 38% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games.
Lars Nootbaar
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.256 hit rate · 0.359 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2511 / 25
On-base rate is down 11% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 31%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
82
Gabriel Moreno
1+ Hit
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
82
Geraldo Perdomo
1+ Hit
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
80
Nolan Arenado
1+ Hit
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
79
Ty France
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
78
Fernando Tatis Jr.
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Jackson Merrill
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. D-backs bring more power.
Early edge D-backs Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 48th percentile in combined suppression.
- D-backs are trending up; Padres are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Is Pavin Smith the one to watch?
Pavin Smith enters as D-backs' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 291% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games.
0.304 hit rate · 0.652 TB/PA · 0.125 hit rate · 0.167 TB/PA
Can Tim Tawa snap out of it?
Tim Tawa has cooled off. Hit rate is down 60% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games.
0.086 hit rate · 0.229 TB/PA · 0.213 hit rate · 0.349 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-25, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.