Sports Today Friday, September 11
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 11, 2026
San Diego Padres
78-68 · 2nd in NL West, 11 GB
Steady at the plate
LHP Robbie Ray · Balanced starter
@
San Francisco Giants
62-85 · 4th in NL West, 27.5 GB
Bats heating up
Anthony Molina
MLB · Oracle Park · 7:15 PM PT

Team Identity

San Diego Padres
Season-to-date, 146 games, 5,653 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power.
Power
Below Avg26
Contact
Below Avg37
Plate Discipline
Average61
Speed
Above Avg75
RISP
Average48
Recent Form
Holding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.
San Francisco Giants
Season-to-date, 147 games, 5,640 PA.
An opportunistic, power-hitting offense that cashes in scoring chances, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Above Avg78
Contact
Above Avg67
Plate Discipline
Well Below19
Speed
Below Avg30
RISP
Elite88
Recent Form
Trending Up
Walk rate is up 33% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Giants bring the more opportunistic profile, while Padres lean on being aggressive.

Swing Factor

Robbie Ray strikes hitters out at a 18.8% clip (31st percentile); Giants carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Padres are holding steady and Giants are trending up over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Robbie Ray miss enough bats?
Robbie Ray strikes hitters out at a 18.8% clip (31st percentile); Giants carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · GiantsRobbie Ray: 18.8% K rateGiants: 20.8% K rateHigh confidence
Can Robbie Ray command the strike zone?
Giants walk in 7.2% of trips; Robbie Ray allows walks at a fairly typical rate (11.5%).
Edge · Robbie RayGiants: 7.2% walk rateRobbie Ray: 11.5% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Giants handle left-handers?
Giants have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.341 vs. 0.359 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Robbie Rayvs left-handers: 0.341 TB/PA (1613 PA)overall: 0.359 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Robbie Ray limit Giants' power?
Giants rank in the 78th percentile in extra-base production, while Robbie Ray sits in the 62nd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · GiantsGiants: 0.359 TB/PARobbie Ray: 0.313 TB/PA allowed (671 PA)High confidence

Pitcher Trends

Robbie Ray
Robbie Ray
San Diego Padres · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.8/start
Hits allowed4.4/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
19% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers
San Francisco Giants · 0.286 hit rate · 0.810 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2520 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 94% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games.
Christian Koss
Christian Koss
San Francisco Giants · 0.289 hit rate · 0.526 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 119% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
San Diego Padres · 0.273 hit rate · 0.455 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2515 / 25
Hit rate is up 53% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 16%.
Jake Cronenworth
Jake Cronenworth
San Diego Padres · 0.030 hit rate · 0.121 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L102 / 10L2513 / 25
Hit rate is down 84% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 9 games.
Jung Hoo Lee
Jung Hoo Lee
San Francisco Giants · 0.132 hit rate · 0.184 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 53% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 13%.
Drew Gilbert
Drew Gilbert
San Francisco Giants · 0.136 hit rate · 0.182 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L103 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 44% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 23%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

81
Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
80
Bryce Eldridge
Bryce Eldridge
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
79
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
78
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
73
Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk

Expected Game Shape

UncertainLow confidence

Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Giants bring stronger recent momentum. Giants bring more power.

Early edge Giants Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Moderate
  • At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
  • Padres are trending steady; Giants are trending up.

Storylines to Watch

Does Giants' power tilt the game?
Giants bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Padres power pct 26 vs Giants 78
Is Rafael Devers the one to watch?
Rafael Devers enters as Giants' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 94% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games.
0.286 hit rate · 0.810 TB/PA · 0.216 hit rate · 0.418 TB/PA
Can Jake Cronenworth snap out of it?
Jake Cronenworth has cooled off. Hit rate is down 84% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 9 games.
0.030 hit rate · 0.121 TB/PA · 0.191 hit rate · 0.259 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-11, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.