San Diego Padres
80-68 · 2nd in NL West, 10 GB
Bats heating upNick Pivetta
@
San Francisco Giants
62-87 · 4th in NL West, 28.5 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Logan Webb · Command specialist
Team Identity
San Diego Padres
Season-to-date, 148 games, 5,749 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerBelow Avg28
ContactBelow Avg43
Plate DisciplineAverage59
SpeedAbove Avg79
RISPAverage47
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 14% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
San Francisco Giants
Season-to-date, 149 games, 5,715 PA.
An opportunistic, power-hitting offense that cashes in scoring chances, though it can be free-swinging. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAbove Avg78
ContactAverage62
Plate DisciplineWell Below18
SpeedBelow Avg32
RISPElite85
Recent FormTrending Down
Hit rate is down 9% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Giants bring the more opportunistic profile, while Padres lean on being aggressive.
Swing Factor
Padres rank in the 28th percentile in extra-base production, while Logan Webb sits in the 65th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Padres are trending up and Giants are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Logan Webb limit Padres' power?
Padres rank in the 28th percentile in extra-base production, while Logan Webb sits in the 65th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Logan WebbPadres: 0.332 TB/PALogan Webb: 0.306 TB/PA allowed (666 PA)High confidence
Can Logan Webb miss enough bats?
Logan Webb strikes hitters out at a 19.1% clip (33rd percentile); Padres carry a 20.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · PadresLogan Webb: 19.1% K ratePadres: 20.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can Logan Webb command the strike zone?
Padres walk in 8.9% of trips; Logan Webb allows walks sparingly (6.0%).
Edge · Logan WebbPadres: 8.9% walk rateLogan Webb: 6.0% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Padres handle right-handers?
Padres have produced better against right-handers this season (0.333 vs. 0.332 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Padresvs right-handers: 0.333 TB/PA (4257 PA)overall: 0.332 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Nick Pivetta
San Diego Padres · 4 starts
Strikeouts5.5/start
Hits allowed3.5/start
8+ Strikeouts — 2 of last 44 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 4
31% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Logan Webb
San Francisco Giants · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.8/start
Hits allowed5.1/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
19% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Christian Koss
San Francisco Giants · 0.286 hit rate · 0.543 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 127% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 6%.
Shay Whitcomb
San Francisco Giants · 0.241 hit rate · 0.414 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2510 / 25
On-base rate is up 262% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
Rafael Devers
San Francisco Giants · 0.293 hit rate · 0.829 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2520 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 96% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games.
Turner Hill
San Francisco Giants · 0.100 hit rate · 0.125 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2511 / 23
Total bases per PA is down 67% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 22%.
Jung Hoo Lee
San Francisco Giants · 0.171 hit rate · 0.229 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 40% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 14%.
Samad Taylor
San Diego Padres · 0.200 hit rate · 0.300 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2516 / 253-game hit streak
Hit rate is down 31% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 8 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
78
Fernando Tatis Jr.
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
77
Ty France
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
75
Rafael Devers
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
73
Luis Arraez
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Bryce Eldridge
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
72
Jackson Merrill
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
Expected Game Shape
UncertainLow confidence
Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Padres bring stronger recent momentum. Giants bring more power.
Early edge Giants Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Elevated
- At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
- Padres are trending up; Giants are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Does Giants' power tilt the game?
Giants bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Padres power pct 28 vs Giants 78
Can Turner Hill snap out of it?
Turner Hill has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 67% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 22%.
0.100 hit rate · 0.125 TB/PA · 0.271 hit rate · 0.375 TB/PA
Is Christian Koss the one to watch?
Christian Koss enters as Giants' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 127% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 6%.
0.286 hit rate · 0.543 TB/PA · 0.183 hit rate · 0.239 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-13, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.