Los Angeles Dodgers
97-62 · 1st in NL West
Bats heating upLHP Tarik Skubal · Elite strikeout stuff · plus control
@
San Francisco Giants
65-94 · 4th in NL West, 32 GB
Offense cooling latelyYunior Marte
Team Identity
Los Angeles Dodgers
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,257 PA.
A contact-oriented, patient offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be station-to-station. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerElite88
ContactElite97
Plate DisciplineElite94
SpeedBelow Avg30
RISPElite87
Recent FormTrending Up
Walk rate is up 18% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
San Francisco Giants
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,112 PA.
An opportunistic, power-hitting offense that cashes in scoring chances, though it can be free-swinging. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAbove Avg70
ContactAverage56
Plate DisciplineWell Below16
SpeedBelow Avg41
RISPAbove Avg74
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 24% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Giants bring the more opportunistic profile, while Dodgers lean on being contact-oriented.
Swing Factor
Tarik Skubal strikes hitters out at a 29.0% clip (93rd percentile); Giants carry a 21.3% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Dodgers are trending up and Giants are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Tarik Skubal miss enough bats?
Tarik Skubal strikes hitters out at a 29.0% clip (93rd percentile); Giants carry a 21.3% strikeout rate.
Edge · GiantsTarik Skubal: 29.0% K rateGiants: 21.3% K rateHigh confidence
Can Tarik Skubal command the strike zone?
Giants walk in 7.3% of trips; Tarik Skubal allows walks sparingly (4.5%).
Edge · Tarik SkubalGiants: 7.3% walk rateTarik Skubal: 4.5% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Giants handle left-handers?
Giants have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.332 vs. 0.354 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Tarik Skubalvs left-handers: 0.332 TB/PA (1818 PA)overall: 0.354 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Tarik Skubal limit Giants' power?
Giants rank in the 70th percentile in extra-base production, while Tarik Skubal sits in the 57th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · GiantsGiants: 0.354 TB/PATarik Skubal: 0.323 TB/PA allowed (606 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Tarik Skubal
Los Angeles Dodgers · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.8/start
Hits allowed5.6/start
6+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
29% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Andrew Knizner
San Francisco Giants · 0.333 hit rate · 0.481 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2511 / 253-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 133% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 7%.
Kyle Tucker
Los Angeles Dodgers · 0.316 hit rate · 0.605 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 93% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
Will Smith
Los Angeles Dodgers · 0.276 hit rate · 0.621 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 97% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 7 games.
Drew Cavanaugh
San Francisco Giants · 0.000 hit rate · 0.000 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L102 / 10L258 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 100% over his prior baseline, with hits in 0 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 47%.
Jonah Cox
San Francisco Giants · 0.182 hit rate · 0.205 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L106 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 51% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 45%.
Tommy Edman
Los Angeles Dodgers · 0.095 hit rate · 0.238 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2511 / 25
Hit rate is down 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
83
Mookie Betts
1+ Hit
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Freddie Freeman
1+ Hit
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Heliot Ramos
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
68
Shohei Ohtani
1+ Hit
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
67
Kyle Tucker
1+ Hit
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
66
Teoscar Hernandez
1+ Hit
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
Expected Game Shape
UncertainLow confidence
Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Dodgers bring stronger recent momentum. Dodgers bring more power.
Early edge Dodgers Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Elevated
- At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
- Dodgers are trending up; Giants are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Is Andrew Knizner the one to watch?
Andrew Knizner enters as Giants' hottest bat. Hit rate is up 133% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 7%.
0.333 hit rate · 0.481 TB/PA · 0.143 hit rate · 0.265 TB/PA
Can Drew Cavanaugh snap out of it?
Drew Cavanaugh has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 100% over his prior baseline, with hits in 0 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 47%.
0.000 hit rate · 0.000 TB/PA · 0.208 hit rate · 0.248 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-25, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.