Chicago White Sox
76-72 · 1st in AL Central
Offense cooling latelyRHP David Sandlin · Balanced starter
@
St. Louis Cardinals
73-76 · 4th in NL Central, 20 GB
Bats heating upRHP Michael McGreevy · Pitches to contact
Team Identity
Chicago White Sox
Season-to-date, 148 games, 5,825 PA.
A power-hitting offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be strikeout-prone. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAbove Avg72
ContactWell Below24
Plate DisciplineAverage64
SpeedBelow Avg27
RISPBelow Avg32
Recent FormTrending Down
Hit rate is down 15% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
St. Louis Cardinals
Season-to-date, 149 games, 5,860 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerWell Below19
ContactAverage57
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg36
SpeedAverage63
RISPAverage61
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 16% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
White Sox's offense is defined by being power-hitting, and this game tests whether Cardinals can match it.
Swing Factor
Michael McGreevy strikes hitters out at a 16.5% clip (16th percentile); White Sox carry a 23.2% strikeout rate.
Momentum
White Sox are trending down and Cardinals are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Michael McGreevy miss enough bats?
Michael McGreevy strikes hitters out at a 16.5% clip (16th percentile); White Sox carry a 23.2% strikeout rate.
Edge · White SoxMichael McGreevy: 16.5% K rateWhite Sox: 23.2% K rateHigh confidence
Can Michael McGreevy limit White Sox's power?
White Sox rank in the 72nd percentile in extra-base production, while Michael McGreevy sits in the 21st percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · White SoxWhite Sox: 0.345 TB/PAMichael McGreevy: 0.387 TB/PA allowed (643 PA)High confidence
Can David Sandlin command the strike zone?
Cardinals walk in 8.1% of trips; David Sandlin allows walks at a fairly typical rate (10.8%).
Edge · David SandlinCardinals: 8.1% walk rateDavid Sandlin: 10.8% walks allowedLow confidence
Can Michael McGreevy command the strike zone?
White Sox walk in 9.2% of trips; Michael McGreevy allows walks sparingly (6.5%).
Edge · Michael McGreevyWhite Sox: 9.2% walk rateMichael McGreevy: 6.5% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can David Sandlin miss enough bats?
David Sandlin strikes hitters out at a 21.6% clip (53rd percentile); Cardinals carry a 20.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · CardinalsDavid Sandlin: 21.6% K rateCardinals: 20.0% K rateLow confidence
Pitcher Trends
David Sandlin
Chicago White Sox · 5 starts
Strikeouts4.8/start
Hits allowed4.4/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 54 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 5
22% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Michael McGreevy
St. Louis Cardinals · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.0/start
Hits allowed6.1/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
16% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Joshua Baez
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.351 hit rate · 0.568 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2515 / 25
Hit rate is up 125% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 24%.
Randal Grichuk
Chicago White Sox · 0.391 hit rate · 0.739 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L107 / 10L2514 / 256-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 59% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 9 games.
Thomas Saggese
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.317 hit rate · 0.463 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L109 / 10L2515 / 252-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 59% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 20%.
Jordan Walker
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.175 hit rate · 0.250 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 44% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 35%.
Munetaka Murakami
Chicago White Sox · 0.122 hit rate · 0.268 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L259 / 25
On-base rate is down 42% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 46%.
Miguel Vargas
Chicago White Sox · 0.186 hit rate · 0.256 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2519 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 35% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 28%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
83
Ivan Herrera
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
79
Leo Bernal
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Thomas Saggese
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 7th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
71
Alec Burleson
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Sam Antonacci
1+ Hit
Chicago White Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
66
Miguel Vargas
1+ Hit
Chicago White Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Cardinals bring stronger recent momentum. White Sox bring more power.
Early edge White Sox Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Elevated
- Both probable starters grade around the 36th percentile in combined suppression.
- White Sox are trending down; Cardinals are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Does White Sox's power tilt the game?
White Sox bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
White Sox power pct 72 vs Cardinals 19
Is Joshua Baez the one to watch?
Joshua Baez enters as Cardinals' hottest bat. Hit rate is up 125% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 24%.
0.351 hit rate · 0.568 TB/PA · 0.156 hit rate · 0.469 TB/PA
Can Jordan Walker snap out of it?
Jordan Walker has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 44% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 35%.
0.175 hit rate · 0.250 TB/PA · 0.257 hit rate · 0.448 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-13, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.