Washington Nationals
71-82 · 4th in NL East, 18 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Cade Cavalli · Elite strikeout stuff
@
St. Louis Cardinals
75-78 · 4th in NL Central, 20 GB
Steady at the plateRHP Kyle Leahy · Command specialist
Team Identity
Washington Nationals
Season-to-date, 153 games, 6,119 PA.
A power-hitting, aggressive offense that does damage on extra-base hits. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerElite96
ContactAverage66
Plate DisciplineAverage46
SpeedElite90
RISPAverage50
Recent FormTrending Down
Walk rate is down 16% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
St. Louis Cardinals
Season-to-date, 153 games, 6,006 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness.
PowerWell Below16
ContactAverage55
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg34
SpeedAverage63
RISPAverage54
Recent FormHolding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Nationals' offense is defined by being power-hitting, and this game tests whether Cardinals can match it.
Swing Factor
Nationals rank in the 96th percentile in extra-base production, while Kyle Leahy sits in the 33rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Nationals are trending down and Cardinals are holding steady over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Kyle Leahy limit Nationals' power?
Nationals rank in the 96th percentile in extra-base production, while Kyle Leahy sits in the 33rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · NationalsNationals: 0.363 TB/PAKyle Leahy: 0.367 TB/PA allowed (583 PA)High confidence
Can Cade Cavalli limit Cardinals' power?
Cardinals rank in the 16th percentile in extra-base production, while Cade Cavalli sits in the 64th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Cade CavalliCardinals: 0.328 TB/PACade Cavalli: 0.312 TB/PA allowed (706 PA)High confidence
Can Cade Cavalli miss enough bats?
Cade Cavalli strikes hitters out at a 27.5% clip (87th percentile); Cardinals carry a 20.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · CardinalsCade Cavalli: 27.5% K rateCardinals: 20.0% K rateHigh confidence
Can Kyle Leahy miss enough bats?
Kyle Leahy strikes hitters out at a 21.8% clip (54th percentile); Nationals carry a 20.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · NationalsKyle Leahy: 21.8% K rateNationals: 20.9% K rateHigh confidence
Can Cade Cavalli command the strike zone?
Cardinals walk in 8.2% of trips; Cade Cavalli allows walks sparingly (6.8%).
Edge · Cade CavalliCardinals: 8.2% walk rateCade Cavalli: 6.8% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Cade Cavalli
Washington Nationals · 8 starts
Strikeouts8.0/start
Hits allowed3.6/start
7+ Strikeouts — 6 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
27% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Kyle Leahy
St. Louis Cardinals · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.0/start
Hits allowed4.6/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
22% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Keibert Ruiz
Washington Nationals · 0.350 hit rate · 0.600 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 49% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
Nathan Church
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.300 hit rate · 0.375 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2521 / 25
On-base rate is up 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 12%.
Alec Burleson
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.273 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2518 / 254-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 29% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
Jordan Walker
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.111 hit rate · 0.139 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 69% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 31%.
Ivan Herrera
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.136 hit rate · 0.159 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L104 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 49% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
77
Alec Burleson
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
73
James Wood
1+ Hit
Washington Nationals
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
73
Leo Bernal
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
67
JJ Wetherholt
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
65
Ivan Herrera
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 0 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
65
Thomas Saggese
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Nationals bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.
Early edge Nationals Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 58th percentile in combined suppression.
- Nationals are trending down; Cardinals are trending steady.
Storylines to Watch
Does Nationals' power tilt the game?
Nationals bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Nationals power pct 96 vs Cardinals 16
Is Keibert Ruiz the one to watch?
Keibert Ruiz enters as Nationals' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 49% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
0.350 hit rate · 0.600 TB/PA · 0.254 hit rate · 0.402 TB/PA
Can Jordan Walker snap out of it?
Jordan Walker has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 69% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 31%.
0.111 hit rate · 0.139 TB/PA · 0.255 hit rate · 0.444 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-18, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.