Sports Today Sunday, September 20
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 20, 2026
Washington Nationals
73-82 · 4th in NL East, 18 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Jake Irvin · Balanced starter
@
St. Louis Cardinals
75-80 · 4th in NL Central, 22 GB
Offense cooling lately
LHP Quinn Mathews · Balanced starter
MLB · Busch Stadium · 11:15 AM PT

Team Identity

Washington Nationals
Season-to-date, 155 games, 6,213 PA.
A power-hitting, aggressive offense that does damage on extra-base hits. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Elite93
Contact
Above Avg66
Plate Discipline
Below Avg45
Speed
Elite92
RISP
Average49
Recent Form
Trending Down
Walk rate is down 15% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
St. Louis Cardinals
Season-to-date, 155 games, 6,092 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Well Below12
Contact
Average58
Plate Discipline
Below Avg30
Speed
Average62
RISP
Average53
Recent Form
Trending Down
Total bases per PA is down 22% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Nationals' offense is defined by being power-hitting, and this game tests whether Cardinals can match it.

Swing Factor

Cardinals rank in the 12th percentile in extra-base production, while Jake Irvin sits in the 42nd percentile at suppressing total bases.

Momentum

Nationals are trending down and Cardinals are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Jake Irvin limit Cardinals' power?
Cardinals rank in the 12th percentile in extra-base production, while Jake Irvin sits in the 42nd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Jake IrvinCardinals: 0.328 TB/PAJake Irvin: 0.351 TB/PA allowed (445 PA)High confidence
Can Quinn Mathews limit Nationals' power?
Nationals rank in the 93rd percentile in extra-base production, while Quinn Mathews sits in the 63rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · NationalsNationals: 0.362 TB/PAQuinn Mathews: 0.311 TB/PA allowed (164 PA)Moderate confidence
Can Jake Irvin command the strike zone?
Cardinals walk in 8.1% of trips; Jake Irvin allows walks at a fairly typical rate (10.3%).
Edge · Jake IrvinCardinals: 8.1% walk rateJake Irvin: 10.3% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Quinn Mathews miss enough bats?
Quinn Mathews strikes hitters out at a 21.3% clip (50th percentile); Nationals carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · NationalsQuinn Mathews: 21.3% K rateNationals: 20.8% K rateModerate confidence
Can Jake Irvin miss enough bats?
Jake Irvin strikes hitters out at a 21.6% clip (52nd percentile); Cardinals carry a 20.1% strikeout rate.
Edge · CardinalsJake Irvin: 21.6% K rateCardinals: 20.1% K rateHigh confidence

Pitcher Trends

Jake Irvin
Jake Irvin
Washington Nationals · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.0/start
Hits allowed5.0/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
22% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Quinn Mathews
Quinn Mathews
St. Louis Cardinals · 7 starts
SP
Strikeouts5.0/start
Hits allowed5.1/start
7+ Strikeouts — 3 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
21% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Nathan Church
Nathan Church
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.333 hit rate · 0.436 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2521 / 253-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
Andres Chaparro
Andres Chaparro
Washington Nationals · 0.261 hit rate · 0.565 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 37% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games.
Dylan Crews
Dylan Crews
Washington Nationals · 0.268 hit rate · 0.463 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2518 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 47% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 17%.
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.111 hit rate · 0.139 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
Harry Ford
Harry Ford
Washington Nationals · 0.067 hit rate · 0.067 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 79% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 5 games.
Thomas Saggese
Thomas Saggese
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.171 hit rate · 0.171 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2517 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games.

Players Positioned to Succeed

73
Luis Garcia Jr.
Luis Garcia Jr.
1+ Hit
Washington Nationals
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
73
Leo Bernal
Leo Bernal
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams
1+ Hit
Washington Nationals
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
71
Dylan Crews
Dylan Crews
1+ Hit
Washington Nationals
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
69
James Wood
James Wood
1+ Hit
Washington Nationals
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
68
Ivan Herrera
Ivan Herrera
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Nationals bring more power.

Early edge Nationals Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 45th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Nationals are trending down; Cardinals are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Does Nationals' power tilt the game?
Nationals bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Nationals power pct 93 vs Cardinals 12
Is Nathan Church the one to watch?
Nathan Church enters as Cardinals' hottest bat. On-base rate is up 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
0.333 hit rate · 0.436 TB/PA · 0.218 hit rate · 0.327 TB/PA
Can Jordan Walker snap out of it?
Jordan Walker has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
0.111 hit rate · 0.139 TB/PA · 0.253 hit rate · 0.438 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-20, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.