Houston Astros
75-72 · 1st in AL West
Offense cooling latelyMiguel Ullola
@
Tampa Bay Rays
87-59 · 1st in AL East
Steady at the plateRHP Drew Rasmussen · High-strikeout arm · plus control
Team Identity
Houston Astros
Season-to-date, 147 games, 5,690 PA.
A power-hitting, opportunistic offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be station-to-station. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAbove Avg80
ContactAverage46
Plate DisciplineAverage48
SpeedWell Below7
RISPAbove Avg67
Recent FormTrending Down
Walk rate is down 18% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Tampa Bay Rays
Season-to-date, 146 games, 5,771 PA.
A contact-oriented, opportunistic offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be free-swinging.
PowerBelow Avg30
ContactElite97
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg27
SpeedAbove Avg68
RISPAbove Avg76
Recent FormHolding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Rays bring the more contact-oriented profile, while Astros lean on being power-hitting.
Swing Factor
Drew Rasmussen strikes hitters out at a 24.9% clip (76th percentile); Astros carry a 21.1% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Astros are trending down and Rays are holding steady over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Drew Rasmussen miss enough bats?
Drew Rasmussen strikes hitters out at a 24.9% clip (76th percentile); Astros carry a 21.1% strikeout rate.
Edge · Drew RasmussenDrew Rasmussen: 24.9% K rateAstros: 21.1% K rateHigh confidence
How do Astros handle right-handers?
Astros have produced better against right-handers this season (0.358 vs. 0.356 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Astrosvs right-handers: 0.358 TB/PA (4268 PA)overall: 0.356 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Drew Rasmussen limit Astros' power?
Astros rank in the 80th percentile in extra-base production, while Drew Rasmussen sits in the 82nd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Drew RasmussenAstros: 0.356 TB/PADrew Rasmussen: 0.273 TB/PA allowed (626 PA)High confidence
Can Drew Rasmussen command the strike zone?
Astros walk in 8.4% of trips; Drew Rasmussen allows walks sparingly (4.3%).
Edge · Drew RasmussenAstros: 8.4% walk rateDrew Rasmussen: 4.3% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Drew Rasmussen
Tampa Bay Rays · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.6/start
Hits allowed3.5/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 65+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 6
25% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Victor Mesa Jr.
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.375 hit rate · 0.594 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L107 / 10L2514 / 256-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 108% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 6%.
Cam Smith
Houston Astros · 0.278 hit rate · 0.667 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2510 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 101% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games.
Richie Palacios
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.222 hit rate · 0.667 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 254-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 143% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 7%.
Jeremy Pena
Houston Astros · 0.156 hit rate · 0.200 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2517 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 29%.
Yordan Alvarez
Houston Astros · 0.182 hit rate · 0.295 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 39% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 23%.
Liam Hicks
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.259 hit rate · 0.370 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2516 / 25
On-base rate is down 20% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 15%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
80
Yandy Diaz
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Junior Caminero
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Chandler Simpson
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
73
Jonathan Aranda
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
71
Jeremy Pena
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
69
Jose Altuve
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
UncertainLow confidence
Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Astros bring more power.
Early edge Rays Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Moderate
- At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
- Astros are trending down; Rays are trending steady.
Storylines to Watch
Does Astros' power tilt the game?
Astros bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Astros power pct 80 vs Rays 30
Is Victor Mesa Jr. the one to watch?
Victor Mesa Jr. enters as Rays' hottest bat. Hit rate is up 108% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 6%.
0.375 hit rate · 0.594 TB/PA · 0.180 hit rate · 0.376 TB/PA
Can Jeremy Pena snap out of it?
Jeremy Pena has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 29%.
0.156 hit rate · 0.200 TB/PA · 0.254 hit rate · 0.432 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-11, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.