Sports Today Sunday, September 13
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 13, 2026
Houston Astros
75-74 · 1st in AL West
Steady at the plate
RHP Hayden Wesneski · Balanced starter
@
Tampa Bay Rays
89-59 · 1st in AL East
Offense cooling lately
RHP Freddy Peralta · Balanced starter
MLB · Tropicana Field · 10:40 AM PT

Team Identity

Houston Astros
Season-to-date, 149 games, 5,762 PA.
A power-hitting offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be station-to-station.
Power
Above Avg79
Contact
Below Avg43
Plate Discipline
Average50
Speed
Well Below3
RISP
Average66
Recent Form
Holding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.
Tampa Bay Rays
Season-to-date, 148 games, 5,840 PA.
A contact-oriented, opportunistic offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be light on power. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Below Avg28
Contact
Elite97
Plate Discipline
Below Avg28
Speed
Above Avg68
RISP
Above Avg77
Recent Form
Trending Down
Hit rate is down 10% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Rays bring the more contact-oriented profile, while Astros lean on being power-hitting.

Swing Factor

Hayden Wesneski strikes hitters out at a 19.5% clip (36th percentile); Rays carry a 17.4% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Astros are holding steady and Rays are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Hayden Wesneski miss enough bats?
Hayden Wesneski strikes hitters out at a 19.5% clip (36th percentile); Rays carry a 17.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · RaysHayden Wesneski: 19.5% K rateRays: 17.4% K rateModerate confidence
Can Freddy Peralta limit Astros' power?
Astros rank in the 79th percentile in extra-base production, while Freddy Peralta sits in the 26th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · AstrosAstros: 0.354 TB/PAFreddy Peralta: 0.379 TB/PA allowed (681 PA)High confidence
Can Hayden Wesneski limit Rays' power?
Rays rank in the 28th percentile in extra-base production, while Hayden Wesneski sits in the 80th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Hayden WesneskiRays: 0.343 TB/PAHayden Wesneski: 0.281 TB/PA allowed (185 PA)Moderate confidence
Can Hayden Wesneski command the strike zone?
Rays walk in 8.1% of trips; Hayden Wesneski allows walks sparingly (7.6%).
Edge · Hayden WesneskiRays: 8.1% walk rateHayden Wesneski: 7.6% walks allowedModerate confidence
How do Rays handle right-handers?
Rays have produced better against right-handers this season (0.356 vs. 0.343 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Raysvs right-handers: 0.356 TB/PA (4018 PA)overall: 0.343 TB/PAModerate confidence

Pitcher Trends

Hayden Wesneski
Hayden Wesneski
Houston Astros · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.5/start
Hits allowed4.1/start
5 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
19% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Freddy Peralta
Freddy Peralta
Tampa Bay Rays · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.0/start
Hits allowed4.9/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
21% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Yainer Diaz
Yainer Diaz
Houston Astros · 0.452 hit rate · 0.613 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2517 / 252-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 85% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games.
Richie Palacios
Richie Palacios
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.250 hit rate · 0.679 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 256-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 148% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 7%.
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.314 hit rate · 0.600 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L108 / 10L2515 / 258-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 64% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 9%.
Jorge Mateo
Jorge Mateo
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.065 hit rate · 0.065 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L259 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 74% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 32%.
Jeremy Pena
Jeremy Pena
Houston Astros · 0.152 hit rate · 0.196 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2517 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.207 hit rate · 0.345 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2516 / 25
On-base rate is down 34% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 14%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

78
Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
72
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
71
Isaac Paredes
Isaac Paredes
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
71
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
69
Yainer Diaz
Yainer Diaz
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent plate-appearance volume is limited
68
Jose Altuve
Jose Altuve
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Astros bring more power.

Early edge Astros Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 53rd percentile in combined suppression.
  • Astros are trending steady; Rays are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Does Astros' power tilt the game?
Astros bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Astros power pct 79 vs Rays 28
Is Yainer Diaz the one to watch?
Yainer Diaz enters as Astros' hottest bat. Hit rate is up 85% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games.
0.452 hit rate · 0.613 TB/PA · 0.244 hit rate · 0.389 TB/PA
Can Jorge Mateo snap out of it?
Jorge Mateo has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 74% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 32%.
0.065 hit rate · 0.065 TB/PA · 0.139 hit rate · 0.250 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-13, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.