Sports Today Friday, September 18
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 18, 2026
Boston Red Sox
83-70 · 3rd in AL East, 10.5 GB
Offense cooling lately
LHP Ranger Suarez · Command specialist
@
Tampa Bay Rays
93-59 · 1st in AL East
Steady at the plate
LHP Ian Seymour · Elite strikeout stuff · plus control
MLB · Tropicana Field · 4:10 PM PT

Team Identity

Boston Red Sox
Season-to-date, 153 games, 6,020 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Average50
Contact
Average61
Plate Discipline
Below Avg32
Speed
Below Avg45
RISP
Below Avg33
Recent Form
Trending Down
Hit rate is down 18% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Tampa Bay Rays
Season-to-date, 152 games, 5,996 PA.
A contact-oriented, opportunistic offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be free-swinging.
Power
Below Avg36
Contact
Elite96
Plate Discipline
Below Avg27
Speed
Above Avg67
RISP
Above Avg81
Recent Form
Holding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Rays' offense is defined by being contact-oriented, and this game tests whether Red Sox can match it.

Swing Factor

Ranger Suarez strikes hitters out at a 22.4% clip (60th percentile); Rays carry a 17.5% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Red Sox are trending down and Rays are holding steady over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Ranger Suarez miss enough bats?
Ranger Suarez strikes hitters out at a 22.4% clip (60th percentile); Rays carry a 17.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · RaysRanger Suarez: 22.4% K rateRays: 17.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Ian Seymour miss enough bats?
Ian Seymour strikes hitters out at a 28.8% clip (92nd percentile); Red Sox carry a 20.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · Red SoxIan Seymour: 28.8% K rateRed Sox: 20.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can Ian Seymour limit Red Sox's power?
Red Sox rank in the 50th percentile in extra-base production, while Ian Seymour sits in the 17th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Red SoxRed Sox: 0.342 TB/PAIan Seymour: 0.396 TB/PA allowed (520 PA)High confidence
Can Ranger Suarez limit Rays' power?
Rays rank in the 36th percentile in extra-base production, while Ranger Suarez sits in the 67th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Ranger SuarezRays: 0.345 TB/PARanger Suarez: 0.305 TB/PA allowed (580 PA)High confidence
How do Rays handle left-handers?
Rays have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.318 vs. 0.345 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Ranger Suarezvs left-handers: 0.318 TB/PA (1873 PA)overall: 0.345 TB/PAModerate confidence

Pitcher Trends

Ranger Suarez
Ranger Suarez
Boston Red Sox · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.4/start
Hits allowed5.0/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
22% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Ian Seymour
Ian Seymour
Tampa Bay Rays · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts7.4/start
Hits allowed5.1/start
7+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 66 or fewer Hits Allowed — 6 of last 6
29% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.333 hit rate · 0.727 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 96% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 9%.
Richie Palacios
Richie Palacios
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.250 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
Nick Fortes
Nick Fortes
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.188 hit rate · 0.438 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 39% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 6%.
Jahmai Jones
Jahmai Jones
Boston Red Sox · 0.059 hit rate · 0.059 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 92% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 41%.
Cedric Mullins
Cedric Mullins
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.059 hit rate · 0.059 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L103 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 80% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 24%.
Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.163 hit rate · 0.245 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L105 / 10L2515 / 25
On-base rate is down 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 18%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

78
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
71
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
70
Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 2 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
67
Trevor Story
Trevor Story
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
66
Roman Anthony
Roman Anthony
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate

Expected Game Shape

Starter-drivenModerate confidence

Runs may be at a premium if the starters hold form. Red Sox bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.

Early edge Rays Driver Pitching and command Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 61st percentile in combined suppression.
  • Red Sox are trending down; Rays are trending steady.

Storylines to Watch

Can Jahmai Jones snap out of it?
Jahmai Jones has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 92% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 41%.
0.059 hit rate · 0.059 TB/PA · 0.381 hit rate · 0.738 TB/PA
Is Victor Mesa Jr. the one to watch?
Victor Mesa Jr. enters as Rays' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 96% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 9%.
0.333 hit rate · 0.727 TB/PA · 0.193 hit rate · 0.372 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-18, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.