Boston Red Sox
82-69 · 3rd in AL East, 9.5 GB
Offense cooling latelyLHP Jake Bennett · Command specialist
@
Texas Rangers
75-76 · 2nd in AL West, 1 GB
Bats heating upLHP MacKenzie Gore · High-strikeout arm
Team Identity
Boston Red Sox
Season-to-date, 150 games, 5,909 PA.
A contact-oriented offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAverage56
ContactAbove Avg67
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg34
SpeedBelow Avg45
RISPBelow Avg36
Recent FormTrending Down
Hit rate is down 11% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Texas Rangers
Season-to-date, 150 games, 5,763 PA.
An opportunistic offense that cashes in scoring chances. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage54
ContactAverage49
Plate DisciplineAverage50
SpeedBelow Avg42
RISPAbove Avg69
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 6% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Rangers bring the more opportunistic profile, while Red Sox lean on being contact-oriented.
Swing Factor
MacKenzie Gore strikes hitters out at a 24.2% clip (72nd percentile); Red Sox carry a 20.6% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Red Sox are trending down and Rangers are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can MacKenzie Gore miss enough bats?
MacKenzie Gore strikes hitters out at a 24.2% clip (72nd percentile); Red Sox carry a 20.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · Red SoxMacKenzie Gore: 24.2% K rateRed Sox: 20.6% K rateHigh confidence
How do Rangers handle left-handers?
Rangers have produced better against left-handers this season (0.375 vs. 0.346 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Rangersvs left-handers: 0.375 TB/PA (1668 PA)overall: 0.346 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can MacKenzie Gore command the strike zone?
Red Sox walk in 8.1% of trips; MacKenzie Gore allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.3%).
Edge · MacKenzie GoreRed Sox: 8.1% walk rateMacKenzie Gore: 9.3% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Jake Bennett miss enough bats?
Jake Bennett strikes hitters out at a 19.3% clip (36th percentile); Rangers carry a 22.1% strikeout rate.
Edge · RangersJake Bennett: 19.3% K rateRangers: 22.1% K rateHigh confidence
How do Red Sox handle left-handers?
Red Sox have produced better against left-handers this season (0.358 vs. 0.344 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Red Soxvs left-handers: 0.358 TB/PA (1518 PA)overall: 0.344 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Jake Bennett
Boston Red Sox · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.1/start
Hits allowed5.8/start
6+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
19% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
MacKenzie Gore
Texas Rangers · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.5/start
Hits allowed5.2/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
24% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Danny Jansen
Texas Rangers · 0.316 hit rate · 0.526 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2512 / 254-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 129% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
Adley Rutschman
Boston Red Sox · 0.250 hit rate · 0.643 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2511 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 197% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
Corey Seager
Texas Rangers · 0.261 hit rate · 0.609 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2517 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 80% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
Cody Freeman
Texas Rangers · 0.062 hit rate · 0.062 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 81% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 7 games.
Roman Anthony
Boston Red Sox · 0.146 hit rate · 0.271 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2516 / 254-game hit streak
On-base rate is down 37% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 38%.
Brandon Nimmo
Texas Rangers · 0.163 hit rate · 0.209 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 44% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 28%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
74
Corey Seager
1+ Hit
Texas Rangers
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
73
Trevor Story
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Recent form supports the pick
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
71
Masataka Yoshida
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
67
Wilyer Abreu
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
67
Josh Jung
1+ Hit
Texas Rangers
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
67
Ceddanne Rafaela
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Rangers bring stronger recent momentum.
Early edge Red Sox Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Elevated
- Both probable starters grade around the 53rd percentile in combined suppression.
- Red Sox are trending down; Rangers are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Is Danny Jansen the one to watch?
Danny Jansen enters as Rangers' hottest bat. Hit rate is up 129% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
0.316 hit rate · 0.526 TB/PA · 0.138 hit rate · 0.271 TB/PA
Can Cody Freeman snap out of it?
Cody Freeman has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 81% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 7 games.
0.062 hit rate · 0.062 TB/PA · 0.256 hit rate · 0.333 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-16, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.