Sports Today Friday, September 11
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 11, 2026
Baltimore Orioles
71-76 · 5th in AL East, 16.5 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Chris Bassitt · Pitches to contact
@
Toronto Blue Jays
73-74 · 4th in AL East, 14.5 GB
Bats heating up
RHP Max Scherzer · Pitches to contact
MLB · Rogers Centre · 4:07 PM PT

Team Identity

Baltimore Orioles
Season-to-date, 147 games, 5,708 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be station-to-station. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Average46
Contact
Well Below21
Plate Discipline
Elite87
Speed
Well Below17
RISP
Average59
Recent Form
Trending Down
Total bases per PA is down 16% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Toronto Blue Jays
Season-to-date, 147 games, 5,619 PA.
A contact-oriented offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Well Below22
Contact
Above Avg80
Plate Discipline
Well Below15
Speed
Average50
RISP
Below Avg28
Recent Form
Trending Up
Hit rate is up 13% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Blue Jays bring the more contact-oriented profile, while Orioles lean on being patient.

Swing Factor

Chris Bassitt strikes hitters out at a 15.2% clip (10th percentile); Blue Jays carry a 18.7% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Orioles are trending down and Blue Jays are trending up over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Chris Bassitt miss enough bats?
Chris Bassitt strikes hitters out at a 15.2% clip (10th percentile); Blue Jays carry a 18.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · Blue JaysChris Bassitt: 15.2% K rateBlue Jays: 18.7% K rateHigh confidence
Can Max Scherzer miss enough bats?
Max Scherzer strikes hitters out at a 16.6% clip (16th percentile); Orioles carry a 23.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · OriolesMax Scherzer: 16.6% K rateOrioles: 23.8% K rateModerate confidence
Can Max Scherzer command the strike zone?
Orioles walk in 9.5% of trips; Max Scherzer allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.5%).
Edge · OriolesOrioles: 9.5% walk rateMax Scherzer: 9.5% walks allowedModerate confidence
Can Chris Bassitt command the strike zone?
Blue Jays walk in 7.2% of trips; Chris Bassitt allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.2%).
Edge · Chris BassittBlue Jays: 7.2% walk rateChris Bassitt: 8.2% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Max Scherzer limit Orioles' power?
Orioles rank in the 46th percentile in extra-base production, while Max Scherzer sits in the 29th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · OriolesOrioles: 0.337 TB/PAMax Scherzer: 0.375 TB/PA allowed (283 PA)Moderate confidence

Pitcher Trends

Chris Bassitt
Chris Bassitt
Baltimore Orioles · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.9/start
Hits allowed6.0/start
5+ Hits Allowed — 6 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
15% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer
Toronto Blue Jays · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.2/start
Hits allowed3.9/start
5 or fewer Hits Allowed — 6 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 6
17% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Carlos Narvaez
Carlos Narvaez
Baltimore Orioles · 0.200 hit rate · 0.200 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L256 / 25
Hit rate is up 195% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 13%.
Coby Mayo
Coby Mayo
Baltimore Orioles · 0.242 hit rate · 0.545 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 37% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
Kazuma Okamoto
Kazuma Okamoto
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.270 hit rate · 0.568 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 48% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 9 games.
Colton Cowser
Colton Cowser
Baltimore Orioles · 0.045 hit rate · 0.091 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2513 / 25
Hit rate is down 76% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 45%.
Leody Taveras
Leody Taveras
Baltimore Orioles · 0.120 hit rate · 0.160 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2512 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 49% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 44%.
George Springer
George Springer
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.167 hit rate · 0.267 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 25
On-base rate is down 36% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 23%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

78
Brett Bateman
Brett Bateman
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Adley Rutschman
Adley Rutschman
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
70
Nathan Lukes
Nathan Lukes
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Alejandro Kirk
Alejandro Kirk
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Kazuma Okamoto
Kazuma Okamoto
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
68
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Blue Jays bring stronger recent momentum. Orioles bring more power.

Early edge Orioles Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Elevated
  • Both probable starters grade around the 30th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Orioles are trending down; Blue Jays are trending up.

Storylines to Watch

Can Colton Cowser snap out of it?
Colton Cowser has cooled off. Hit rate is down 76% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 45%.
0.045 hit rate · 0.091 TB/PA · 0.186 hit rate · 0.317 TB/PA
Is Carlos Narvaez the one to watch?
Carlos Narvaez enters as Orioles' hottest bat. Hit rate is up 195% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 13%.
0.200 hit rate · 0.200 TB/PA · 0.068 hit rate · 0.085 TB/PA
Can Orioles handle Max Scherzer's strikeout stuff?
Orioles have been a below-average contact team while Max Scherzer misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Orioles contact percentile: 21
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-11, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.