Sports Today Sunday, September 13
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 13, 2026
Baltimore Orioles
72-77 · 5th in AL East, 17.5 GB
Offense cooling lately
LHP Trevor Rogers · Command specialist
@
Toronto Blue Jays
74-75 · 4th in AL East, 15.5 GB
Bats heating up
RHP Dylan Cease · Elite strikeout stuff
MLB · Rogers Centre · 10:37 AM PT

Team Identity

Baltimore Orioles
Season-to-date, 149 games, 5,787 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be station-to-station. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Average46
Contact
Well Below23
Plate Discipline
Elite86
Speed
Well Below17
RISP
Average59
Recent Form
Trending Down
Walk rate is down 18% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Toronto Blue Jays
Season-to-date, 149 games, 5,700 PA.
A contact-oriented offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Well Below23
Contact
Above Avg83
Plate Discipline
Well Below18
Speed
Average50
RISP
Below Avg27
Recent Form
Trending Up
Hit rate is up 20% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Blue Jays bring the more contact-oriented profile, while Orioles lean on being patient.

Swing Factor

Dylan Cease strikes hitters out at a 33.0% clip (98th percentile); Orioles carry a 23.8% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Orioles are trending down and Blue Jays are trending up over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Dylan Cease miss enough bats?
Dylan Cease strikes hitters out at a 33.0% clip (98th percentile); Orioles carry a 23.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · Dylan CeaseDylan Cease: 33.0% K rateOrioles: 23.8% K rateHigh confidence
Can Dylan Cease limit Orioles' power?
Orioles rank in the 46th percentile in extra-base production, while Dylan Cease sits in the 96th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Dylan CeaseOrioles: 0.338 TB/PADylan Cease: 0.224 TB/PA allowed (684 PA)High confidence
Can Dylan Cease command the strike zone?
Orioles walk in 9.5% of trips; Dylan Cease allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.8%).
Edge · OriolesOrioles: 9.5% walk rateDylan Cease: 9.8% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Trevor Rogers miss enough bats?
Trevor Rogers strikes hitters out at a 21.4% clip (51st percentile); Blue Jays carry a 18.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · Blue JaysTrevor Rogers: 21.4% K rateBlue Jays: 18.8% K rateHigh confidence
Can Trevor Rogers command the strike zone?
Blue Jays walk in 7.2% of trips; Trevor Rogers allows walks sparingly (5.7%).
Edge · Trevor RogersBlue Jays: 7.2% walk rateTrevor Rogers: 5.7% walks allowedHigh confidence

Pitcher Trends

Trevor Rogers
Trevor Rogers
Baltimore Orioles · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts6.9/start
Hits allowed5.9/start
6+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 66+ Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
21% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Dylan Cease
Dylan Cease
Toronto Blue Jays · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts7.5/start
Hits allowed3.2/start
6+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
33% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Kazuma Okamoto
Kazuma Okamoto
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.289 hit rate · 0.605 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2519 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 9 games.
Myles Straw
Myles Straw
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.286 hit rate · 0.333 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2512 / 25
On-base rate is up 70% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
Coby Mayo
Coby Mayo
Baltimore Orioles · 0.237 hit rate · 0.579 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2518 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 46% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 16%.
Leody Taveras
Leody Taveras
Baltimore Orioles · 0.150 hit rate · 0.200 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L102 / 10L2510 / 25
On-base rate is down 47% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 45%.
Jackson Holliday
Jackson Holliday
Baltimore Orioles · 0.162 hit rate · 0.189 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2513 / 25
On-base rate is down 47% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 32%.
Dylan Beavers
Dylan Beavers
Baltimore Orioles · 0.179 hit rate · 0.308 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 25
On-base rate is down 36% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 28%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

81
Brett Bateman
Brett Bateman
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
71
Kazuma Okamoto
Kazuma Okamoto
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
70
George Springer
George Springer
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
69
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar Henderson
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk

Expected Game Shape

Starter-drivenModerate confidence

Runs may be at a premium if the starters hold form. Blue Jays bring stronger recent momentum. Orioles bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.

Early edge Blue Jays Driver Pitching and command Volatility Elevated
  • Both probable starters grade around the 65th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Orioles are trending down; Blue Jays are trending up.

Storylines to Watch

Can Orioles handle Dylan Cease's strikeout stuff?
Orioles have been a below-average contact team while Dylan Cease misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Orioles contact percentile: 23
Is Kazuma Okamoto the one to watch?
Kazuma Okamoto enters as Blue Jays' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 9 games.
0.289 hit rate · 0.605 TB/PA · 0.200 hit rate · 0.387 TB/PA
Can Leody Taveras snap out of it?
Leody Taveras has cooled off. On-base rate is down 47% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 45%.
0.150 hit rate · 0.200 TB/PA · 0.191 hit rate · 0.306 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-13, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.