Sports Today Friday, September 25
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 25, 2026
Cincinnati Reds
74-85 · 5th in NL Central, 26 GB
Offense cooling lately
LHP Nick Lodolo · Pitches to contact
@
Toronto Blue Jays
77-82 · 5th in AL East, 19 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP José Soriano · Balanced starter
MLB · Rogers Centre · 4:07 PM PT

Team Identity

Cincinnati Reds
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,147 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Average58
Contact
Well Below4
Plate Discipline
Average64
Speed
Average49
RISP
Well Below6
Recent Form
Trending Down
Walk rate is down 36% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Toronto Blue Jays
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,074 PA.
A contact-oriented offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be light on power. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Well Below17
Contact
Above Avg81
Plate Discipline
Well Below18
Speed
Average48
RISP
Well Below22
Recent Form
Trending Down
Total bases per PA is down 14% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Blue Jays' offense is defined by being contact-oriented, and this game tests whether Reds can match it.

Swing Factor

Nick Lodolo strikes hitters out at a 16.6% clip (16th percentile); Blue Jays carry a 18.6% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Reds are trending down and Blue Jays are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Nick Lodolo miss enough bats?
Nick Lodolo strikes hitters out at a 16.6% clip (16th percentile); Blue Jays carry a 18.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · Blue JaysNick Lodolo: 16.6% K rateBlue Jays: 18.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can José Soriano miss enough bats?
José Soriano strikes hitters out at a 22.2% clip (56th percentile); Reds carry a 24.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · RedsJosé Soriano: 22.2% K rateReds: 24.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Nick Lodolo command the strike zone?
Blue Jays walk in 7.3% of trips; Nick Lodolo allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.1%).
Edge · Nick LodoloBlue Jays: 7.3% walk rateNick Lodolo: 9.1% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Blue Jays handle left-handers?
Blue Jays have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.314 vs. 0.337 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Nick Lodolovs left-handers: 0.314 TB/PA (1773 PA)overall: 0.337 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can José Soriano limit Reds' power?
Reds rank in the 58th percentile in extra-base production, while José Soriano sits in the 75th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · José SorianoReds: 0.339 TB/PAJosé Soriano: 0.292 TB/PA allowed (744 PA)High confidence

Pitcher Trends

Nick Lodolo
Nick Lodolo
Cincinnati Reds · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.8/start
Hits allowed5.4/start
5 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 66 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
17% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Jose Soriano
Jose Soriano
Toronto Blue Jays · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.5/start
Hits allowed5.8/start
5+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 66 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
22% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Brandon Valenzuela
Brandon Valenzuela
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.312 hit rate · 0.312 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L105 / 10L2513 / 254-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 69% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 4 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 12%.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.281 hit rate · 0.438 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L108 / 10L2518 / 255-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 43% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 9%.
Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz
Cincinnati Reds · 0.233 hit rate · 0.535 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2520 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 23% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games.
Josh Smith
Josh Smith
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.038 hit rate · 0.077 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L102 / 10L258 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 83% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 9 games.
Ernie Clement
Ernie Clement
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.108 hit rate · 0.162 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2511 / 25
Hit rate is down 58% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games.
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
Cincinnati Reds · 0.182 hit rate · 0.250 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2517 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 38% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 30%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

71
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
70
Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
68
Alejandro Kirk
Alejandro Kirk
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
67
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
64
George Springer
George Springer
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
62
Eugenio Suarez
Eugenio Suarez
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Reds bring more power.

Early edge Blue Jays Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 41st percentile in combined suppression.
  • Reds are trending down; Blue Jays are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Can Reds handle José Soriano's strikeout stuff?
Reds have been a below-average contact team while José Soriano misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Reds contact percentile: 4
Does Reds' power tilt the game?
Reds bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Reds power pct 58 vs Blue Jays 17
Can Josh Smith snap out of it?
Josh Smith has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 83% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 9 games.
0.038 hit rate · 0.077 TB/PA · 0.207 hit rate · 0.466 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-25, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.