New York Mets
73-86 · 5th in NL East, 20 GB
Bats heating upJefry Yan
@
Washington Nationals
75-84 · 4th in NL East, 18 GB
Offense cooling latelyLHP Andrew Alvarez · Balanced starter
Team Identity
New York Mets
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,169 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage49
ContactBelow Avg32
Plate DisciplineAverage50
SpeedWell Below22
RISPBelow Avg42
Recent FormTrending Up
Walk rate is up 12% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Washington Nationals
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,357 PA.
A power-hitting, aggressive offense that does damage on extra-base hits. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerElite92
ContactAverage59
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg42
SpeedElite92
RISPAverage47
Recent FormTrending Down
Walk rate is down 18% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Nationals' offense is defined by being power-hitting, and this game tests whether Mets can match it.
Swing Factor
Mets rank in the 49th percentile in extra-base production, while Andrew Alvarez sits in the 83rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Mets are trending up and Nationals are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Andrew Alvarez limit Mets' power?
Mets rank in the 49th percentile in extra-base production, while Andrew Alvarez sits in the 83rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Andrew AlvarezMets: 0.342 TB/PAAndrew Alvarez: 0.275 TB/PA allowed (466 PA)High confidence
Can Andrew Alvarez miss enough bats?
Andrew Alvarez strikes hitters out at a 23.0% clip (62nd percentile); Mets carry a 21.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · Andrew AlvarezAndrew Alvarez: 23.0% K rateMets: 21.5% K rateHigh confidence
How do Mets handle left-handers?
Mets have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.329 vs. 0.342 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Andrew Alvarezvs left-handers: 0.329 TB/PA (1805 PA)overall: 0.342 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Andrew Alvarez command the strike zone?
Mets walk in 8.3% of trips; Andrew Alvarez allows walks at a fairly typical rate (10.3%).
Edge · Andrew AlvarezMets: 8.3% walk rateAndrew Alvarez: 10.3% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Andrew Alvarez
Washington Nationals · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.5/start
Hits allowed3.2/start
5+ Strikeouts — 6 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 6 of last 6
23% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Brett Baty
New York Mets · 0.290 hit rate · 0.419 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L108 / 10L2518 / 256-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 67% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 16%.
CJ Abrams
Washington Nationals · 0.256 hit rate · 0.564 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2513 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 34% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 13%.
Andres Chaparro
Washington Nationals · 0.269 hit rate · 0.423 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2516 / 252-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 28% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 19%.
Luis Torrens
New York Mets · 0.118 hit rate · 0.118 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 67% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 35%.
James Wood
Washington Nationals · 0.178 hit rate · 0.200 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 52% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
Francisco Lindor
New York Mets · 0.143 hit rate · 0.204 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2517 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 47% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
77
Carson Benge
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
75
Juan Soto
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Bo Bichette
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
69
CJ Abrams
1+ Hit
Washington Nationals
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
68
Francisco Lindor
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
67
Francisco Alvarez
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
Expected Game Shape
UncertainLow confidence
Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Mets bring stronger recent momentum. Nationals bring more power.
Early edge Nationals Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Elevated
- At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
- Mets are trending up; Nationals are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Does Nationals' power tilt the game?
Nationals bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Mets power pct 49 vs Nationals 92
Is Brett Baty the one to watch?
Brett Baty enters as Mets' hottest bat. On-base rate is up 67% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 16%.
0.290 hit rate · 0.419 TB/PA · 0.198 hit rate · 0.318 TB/PA
Can Luis Torrens snap out of it?
Luis Torrens has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 67% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 35%.
0.118 hit rate · 0.118 TB/PA · 0.210 hit rate · 0.362 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-25, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.