Week 1 · 2026-09-10
New England Patriots
15-3 in 2025
at
Seattle Seahawks
14-3 in 2025
Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.
The read
- Patriots: elite offense (28 pts/g) vs Seahawks' elite defense (17 allowed).
- Seahawks: elite offense (28 pts/g) vs Patriots' elite defense (18 allowed).
- Watch: Patriots' run game should test Seahawks; Seahawks' run game should test Patriots.
Team identity (entering this game · league %ile)
New England PatriotsTeam identitySeattle Seahawks
28.1 88thPoints / game97th 28.4
17.9 94thPoints allowed / game97th 17.2
6.2 100thYards / play84th 5.9
129.8 88thRush yards / game70th 123.3
262.6 91thPass yards / game72th 239.0
43% 3rd-down % 40%
0.1 64thTurnover margin / game39th -0.2
Battlefields
Patriots pass offense vs Seahawks pass defense
262.6 yds/g vs 212.9 allowedEdge Patriots
Patriots rush offense vs Seahawks rush defense
129.8 yds/g vs 91.9 allowedEdge Patriots
Seahawks pass offense vs Patriots pass defense
239.0 yds/g vs 203.9 allowedEdge Seahawks
Seahawks rush offense vs Patriots rush defense
123.3 yds/g vs 100.9 allowedEdge Seahawks
Player spotlights (pick from prior games · matchup effect is measured, and only flagged where it is real)
Patriots
Drake MayeQB
250+ Pass Yards
263.6 avg · cleared 80% (8/10)
TreVeyon HendersonRB
60+ Rush Yards
71.0 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Tough matchup-11 yds
Players lose 11 yards against their own form facing this run defence, 4th-toughest run defence of 32
Hunter HenryTE
40+ Rec Yards
51.5 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Matchup not a factor
Seahawks
Sam DarnoldQB
225+ Pass Yards
229.4 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Tough matchup-21 yds
Players lose 21 yards against their own form facing this pass defence, 8th-toughest pass defence of 32
Kenneth Walker IIIRB
50+ Rush Yards
59.7 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Tough matchup-7 yds
Players lose 7 yards against their own form facing this run defence, 7th-toughest run defence of 32
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR
75+ Rec Yards
97.4 avg · cleared 80% (8/10)
Matchup not a factor
Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.
Recent form
LWWWW
31.0 for · 16.4 against (last 5)
WWWWW
26.6 for · 15.0 against (last 5)
Preview uses only games already played. Weather, injuries, and rest are not modeled yet.