Philadelphia Phillies
79-61 · 2nd in NL East, 4 GB
Bats heating upRHP Andrew Painter · Balanced starter
@
Arizona Diamondbacks
74-67 · 2nd in NL West, 9.5 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Taylor Clarke · Pitches to contact
Team Identity
Philadelphia Phillies
Season-to-date, 139 games, 5,388 PA.
An opportunistic, aggressive offense that cashes in scoring chances. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage62
ContactAverage48
Plate DisciplineAverage46
SpeedAbove Avg73
RISPElite93
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 12% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Season-to-date, 140 games, 5,480 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerBelow Avg39
ContactAverage59
Plate DisciplineAverage54
SpeedAbove Avg68
RISPAverage50
Recent FormTrending Down
Walk rate is down 13% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
D-backs bring the more aggressive profile, while Phillies lean on being opportunistic.
Swing Factor
Taylor Clarke strikes hitters out at a 15.0% clip (9th percentile); Phillies carry a 21.3% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Phillies are trending up and D-backs are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Taylor Clarke miss enough bats?
Taylor Clarke strikes hitters out at a 15.0% clip (9th percentile); Phillies carry a 21.3% strikeout rate.
Edge · PhilliesTaylor Clarke: 15.0% K ratePhillies: 21.3% K rateModerate confidence
Can Andrew Painter miss enough bats?
Andrew Painter strikes hitters out at a 19.1% clip (34th percentile); D-backs carry a 18.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · D-backsAndrew Painter: 19.1% K rateD-backs: 18.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Andrew Painter limit D-backs' power?
D-backs rank in the 39th percentile in extra-base production, while Andrew Painter sits in the 21st percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · D-backsD-backs: 0.340 TB/PAAndrew Painter: 0.387 TB/PA allowed (444 PA)High confidence
How do D-backs handle right-handers?
D-backs have produced worse against right-handers this season (0.326 vs. 0.340 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Andrew Paintervs right-handers: 0.326 TB/PA (3953 PA)overall: 0.340 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Taylor Clarke limit Phillies' power?
Phillies rank in the 62nd percentile in extra-base production, while Taylor Clarke sits in the 73rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Taylor ClarkePhillies: 0.348 TB/PATaylor Clarke: 0.291 TB/PA allowed (247 PA)Moderate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Andrew Painter
Philadelphia Phillies · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.9/start
Hits allowed4.4/start
6+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
19% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Edmundo Sosa
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.467 hit rate · 1.000 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L109 / 10L2514 / 258-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 218% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 13%.
Bryce Harper
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.391 hit rate · 0.630 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L109 / 10L2518 / 253-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 91% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games.
Lars Nootbaar
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.250 hit rate · 0.583 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 133% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 8 games.
Nolan Arenado
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.143 hit rate · 0.171 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 55% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games.
Corbin Carroll
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.116 hit rate · 0.256 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2515 / 25
Hit rate is down 45% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 30%.
Ildemaro Vargas
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.200 hit rate · 0.275 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2513 / 253-game hit streak
On-base rate is down 31% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 18%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
85
Bryce Harper
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
76
Geraldo Perdomo
1+ Hit
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Gabriel Moreno
1+ Hit
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Kyle Schwarber
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
70
Trea Turner
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
66
Tim Tawa
1+ Hit
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Phillies bring stronger recent momentum. Phillies bring more power.
Early edge D-backs Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Elevated
- Both probable starters grade around the 48th percentile in combined suppression.
- Phillies are trending up; D-backs are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Is Edmundo Sosa the one to watch?
Edmundo Sosa enters as Phillies' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 218% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 13%.
0.467 hit rate · 1.000 TB/PA · 0.195 hit rate · 0.314 TB/PA
Can Nolan Arenado snap out of it?
Nolan Arenado has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 55% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games.
0.143 hit rate · 0.171 TB/PA · 0.209 hit rate · 0.382 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-02, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.