Boston Red Sox
76-65 · 3rd in AL East, 7.5 GB
Steady at the plateLHP Ranger Suarez · Balanced starter
@
Baltimore Orioles
69-72 · 5th in AL East, 14.5 GB
Bats heating upRHP Shane Baz · Balanced starter
Team Identity
Boston Red Sox
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,568 PA.
A contact-oriented offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be free-swinging.
PowerAverage61
ContactAbove Avg71
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg29
SpeedAverage47
RISPBelow Avg42
Recent FormHolding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.
Baltimore Orioles
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,485 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be station-to-station. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage54
ContactWell Below23
Plate DisciplineElite87
SpeedWell Below20
RISPAverage61
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 3% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Orioles bring the more patient profile, while Red Sox lean on being contact-oriented.
Swing Factor
Ranger Suarez strikes hitters out at a 22.7% clip (60th percentile); Orioles carry a 23.6% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Red Sox are holding steady and Orioles are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Ranger Suarez miss enough bats?
Ranger Suarez strikes hitters out at a 22.7% clip (60th percentile); Orioles carry a 23.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · OriolesRanger Suarez: 22.7% K rateOrioles: 23.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can Ranger Suarez command the strike zone?
Orioles walk in 9.6% of trips; Ranger Suarez allows walks sparingly (7.4%).
Edge · Ranger SuarezOrioles: 9.6% walk rateRanger Suarez: 7.4% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Shane Baz miss enough bats?
Shane Baz strikes hitters out at a 20.2% clip (41st percentile); Red Sox carry a 20.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · Red SoxShane Baz: 20.2% K rateRed Sox: 20.4% K rateHigh confidence
Can Shane Baz command the strike zone?
Red Sox walk in 8.1% of trips; Shane Baz allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.1%).
Edge · Shane BazRed Sox: 8.1% walk rateShane Baz: 8.1% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Orioles handle left-handers?
Orioles have produced better against left-handers this season (0.355 vs. 0.339 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Oriolesvs left-handers: 0.355 TB/PA (1691 PA)overall: 0.339 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Ranger Suarez
Boston Red Sox · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.4/start
Hits allowed5.0/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 6 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
23% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Shane Baz
Baltimore Orioles · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.9/start
Hits allowed5.6/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
20% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Roman Anthony
Boston Red Sox · 0.417 hit rate · 0.833 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L109 / 10L2516 / 255-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 219% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
Trevor Story
Boston Red Sox · 0.438 hit rate · 0.688 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2519 / 254-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 153% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 4 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 25%.
Adley Rutschman
Boston Red Sox · 0.312 hit rate · 0.688 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 230% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 4 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 19%.
Willson Contreras
Boston Red Sox · 0.143 hit rate · 0.238 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 44% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
Connor Wong
Boston Red Sox · 0.077 hit rate · 0.077 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 76% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games.
Ceddanne Rafaela
Boston Red Sox · 0.179 hit rate · 0.179 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
77
Roman Anthony
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
71
Blaze Alexander
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
71
Jackson Holliday
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Batting 7th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Wilyer Abreu
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
66
Gunnar Henderson
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
66
Nick Sogard
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Orioles bring stronger recent momentum.
Early edge Red Sox Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 49th percentile in combined suppression.
- Red Sox are trending steady; Orioles are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Can Orioles handle Ranger Suarez's strikeout stuff?
Orioles have been a below-average contact team while Ranger Suarez misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Orioles contact percentile: 23
Is Roman Anthony the one to watch?
Roman Anthony enters as Red Sox's hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 219% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
0.417 hit rate · 0.833 TB/PA · 0.187 hit rate · 0.261 TB/PA
Can Willson Contreras snap out of it?
Willson Contreras has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 44% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
0.143 hit rate · 0.238 TB/PA · 0.225 hit rate · 0.422 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-04, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.