Sports Today Thursday, September 3
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 3, 2026
Boston Red Sox
75-65 · 3rd in AL East, 8.5 GB
Steady at the plate
LHP Jake Bennett · Command specialist
@
Baltimore Orioles
69-71 · 5th in AL East, 14.5 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Brandon Young · Pitches to contact
MLB · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 4:15 PM PT

Team Identity

Boston Red Sox
Season-to-date, 140 games, 5,529 PA.
A contact-oriented offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be free-swinging.
Power
Average57
Contact
Above Avg71
Plate Discipline
Below Avg29
Speed
Average47
RISP
Below Avg41
Recent Form
Holding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.
Baltimore Orioles
Season-to-date, 140 games, 5,450 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be station-to-station. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Average49
Contact
Well Below25
Plate Discipline
Elite88
Speed
Well Below21
RISP
Average63
Recent Form
Trending Down
Walk rate is down 18% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Orioles bring the more patient profile, while Red Sox lean on being contact-oriented.

Swing Factor

Brandon Young strikes hitters out at a 18.0% clip (25th percentile); Red Sox carry a 20.4% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Red Sox are holding steady and Orioles are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Brandon Young miss enough bats?
Brandon Young strikes hitters out at a 18.0% clip (25th percentile); Red Sox carry a 20.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · Red SoxBrandon Young: 18.0% K rateRed Sox: 20.4% K rateHigh confidence
Can Jake Bennett miss enough bats?
Jake Bennett strikes hitters out at a 19.3% clip (35th percentile); Orioles carry a 23.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · OriolesJake Bennett: 19.3% K rateOrioles: 23.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Jake Bennett command the strike zone?
Orioles walk in 9.6% of trips; Jake Bennett allows walks sparingly (4.7%).
Edge · Jake BennettOrioles: 9.6% walk rateJake Bennett: 4.7% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Jake Bennett limit Orioles' power?
Orioles rank in the 49th percentile in extra-base production, while Jake Bennett sits in the 72nd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Jake BennettOrioles: 0.339 TB/PAJake Bennett: 0.292 TB/PA allowed (384 PA)High confidence
Can Brandon Young command the strike zone?
Red Sox walk in 8.1% of trips; Brandon Young allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.1%).
Edge · Brandon YoungRed Sox: 8.1% walk rateBrandon Young: 8.1% walks allowedHigh confidence

Pitcher Trends

Jake Bennett
Jake Bennett
Boston Red Sox · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.9/start
Hits allowed5.2/start
4+ Strikeouts — 6 of last 66 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
19% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Brandon Young
Brandon Young
Baltimore Orioles · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.5/start
Hits allowed5.6/start
5+ Hits Allowed — 6 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 6
18% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Roman Anthony
Roman Anthony
Boston Red Sox · 0.474 hit rate · 0.842 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 254-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 222% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 4 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
Mickey Gasper
Mickey Gasper
Boston Red Sox · 0.300 hit rate · 0.767 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2515 / 254-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 122% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
Trevor Story
Trevor Story
Boston Red Sox · 0.438 hit rate · 0.688 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2519 / 254-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 153% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 4 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 25%.
Willson Contreras
Willson Contreras
Boston Red Sox · 0.115 hit rate · 0.192 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 55% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games.
Connor Wong
Connor Wong
Boston Red Sox · 0.077 hit rate · 0.077 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 76% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games.
Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne Rafaela
Boston Red Sox · 0.182 hit rate · 0.182 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games.

Players Positioned to Succeed

80
Jackson Holliday
Jackson Holliday
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Roman Anthony
Roman Anthony
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Masataka Yoshida
Masataka Yoshida
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
67
Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne Rafaela
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
67
Trevor Story
Trevor Story
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt.

Early edge Red Sox Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 50th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Red Sox are trending steady; Orioles are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Can Orioles handle Jake Bennett's strikeout stuff?
Orioles have been a below-average contact team while Jake Bennett misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Orioles contact percentile: 25
Is Roman Anthony the one to watch?
Roman Anthony enters as Red Sox's hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 222% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 4 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
0.474 hit rate · 0.842 TB/PA · 0.187 hit rate · 0.261 TB/PA
Can Willson Contreras snap out of it?
Willson Contreras has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 55% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games.
0.115 hit rate · 0.192 TB/PA · 0.227 hit rate · 0.426 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-03, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.