Sports Today Saturday, September 5
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 5, 2026
Boston Red Sox
77-65 · 3rd in AL East, 7.5 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Sonny Gray · Command specialist
@
Baltimore Orioles
69-73 · 5th in AL East, 15.5 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Chris Bassitt · Pitches to contact
MLB · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 4:05 PM PT

Team Identity

Boston Red Sox
Season-to-date, 142 games, 5,606 PA.
A contact-oriented offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be free-swinging. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Average60
Contact
Above Avg70
Plate Discipline
Below Avg31
Speed
Average47
RISP
Below Avg40
Recent Form
Trending Down
Walk rate is down 7% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Baltimore Orioles
Season-to-date, 142 games, 5,518 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be station-to-station. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Average50
Contact
Well Below24
Plate Discipline
Elite87
Speed
Well Below18
RISP
Average60
Recent Form
Trending Down
Walk rate is down 13% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Orioles bring the more patient profile, while Red Sox lean on being contact-oriented.

Swing Factor

Chris Bassitt strikes hitters out at a 14.7% clip (7th percentile); Red Sox carry a 20.5% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Red Sox are trending down and Orioles are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Chris Bassitt miss enough bats?
Chris Bassitt strikes hitters out at a 14.7% clip (7th percentile); Red Sox carry a 20.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · Red SoxChris Bassitt: 14.7% K rateRed Sox: 20.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Sonny Gray command the strike zone?
Orioles walk in 9.5% of trips; Sonny Gray allows walks sparingly (6.0%).
Edge · Sonny GrayOrioles: 9.5% walk rateSonny Gray: 6.0% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Chris Bassitt limit Red Sox's power?
Red Sox rank in the 60th percentile in extra-base production, while Chris Bassitt sits in the 25th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Red SoxRed Sox: 0.346 TB/PAChris Bassitt: 0.380 TB/PA allowed (374 PA)High confidence
Can Sonny Gray miss enough bats?
Sonny Gray strikes hitters out at a 21.3% clip (48th percentile); Orioles carry a 23.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · OriolesSonny Gray: 21.3% K rateOrioles: 23.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can Chris Bassitt command the strike zone?
Red Sox walk in 8.1% of trips; Chris Bassitt allows walks sparingly (7.8%).
Edge · Chris BassittRed Sox: 8.1% walk rateChris Bassitt: 7.8% walks allowedHigh confidence

Pitcher Trends

Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray
Boston Red Sox · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts5.4/start
Hits allowed6.4/start
6+ Hits Allowed — 5 of last 65+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 6
21% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Chris Bassitt
Chris Bassitt
Baltimore Orioles · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.5/start
Hits allowed6.1/start
6+ Hits Allowed — 4 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
15% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Roman Anthony
Roman Anthony
Boston Red Sox · 0.345 hit rate · 0.690 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 164% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
Trevor Story
Trevor Story
Boston Red Sox · 0.400 hit rate · 0.600 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L108 / 10L2519 / 255-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 121% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 5 games.
Coby Mayo
Coby Mayo
Baltimore Orioles · 0.300 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L109 / 10L2517 / 259-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 59% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 20%.
Willson Contreras
Willson Contreras
Boston Red Sox · 0.062 hit rate · 0.188 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2514 / 25
Hit rate is down 72% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 4 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 44%.
Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne Rafaela
Boston Red Sox · 0.182 hit rate · 0.182 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 56% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 8 games.
Connor Wong
Connor Wong
Boston Red Sox · 0.100 hit rate · 0.100 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games.

Players Positioned to Succeed

74
Roman Anthony
Roman Anthony
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Jackson Holliday
Jackson Holliday
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Masataka Yoshida
Masataka Yoshida
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Blaze Alexander
Blaze Alexander
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
67
Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
67
Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne Rafaela
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt.

Early edge Red Sox Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 39th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Red Sox are trending down; Orioles are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Can Orioles handle Sonny Gray's strikeout stuff?
Orioles have been a below-average contact team while Sonny Gray misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Orioles contact percentile: 24
Is Roman Anthony the one to watch?
Roman Anthony enters as Red Sox's hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 164% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
0.345 hit rate · 0.690 TB/PA · 0.187 hit rate · 0.261 TB/PA
Can Willson Contreras snap out of it?
Willson Contreras has cooled off. Hit rate is down 72% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 4 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 44%.
0.062 hit rate · 0.188 TB/PA · 0.226 hit rate · 0.422 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-05, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.