Sports Today Sunday, September 6
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 6, 2026
Boston Red Sox
78-65 · 3rd in AL East, 7.5 GB
Steady at the plate
LHP Payton Tolle · Elite strikeout stuff
@
Baltimore Orioles
69-74 · 5th in AL East, 16.5 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Kyle Bradish · Balanced starter
MLB · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 10:35 AM PT

Team Identity

Boston Red Sox
Season-to-date, 143 games, 5,647 PA.
A contact-oriented offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats.
Power
Average57
Contact
Above Avg70
Plate Discipline
Below Avg35
Speed
Below Avg45
RISP
Below Avg41
Recent Form
Holding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.
Baltimore Orioles
Season-to-date, 143 games, 5,555 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be station-to-station. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Average48
Contact
Well Below24
Plate Discipline
Elite87
Speed
Well Below18
RISP
Average54
Recent Form
Trending Down
Total bases per PA is down 18% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Orioles bring the more patient profile, while Red Sox lean on being contact-oriented.

Swing Factor

Payton Tolle strikes hitters out at a 27.0% clip (86th percentile); Orioles carry a 23.6% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Red Sox are holding steady and Orioles are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Payton Tolle miss enough bats?
Payton Tolle strikes hitters out at a 27.0% clip (86th percentile); Orioles carry a 23.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · Payton TollePayton Tolle: 27.0% K rateOrioles: 23.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can Payton Tolle command the strike zone?
Orioles walk in 9.5% of trips; Payton Tolle allows walks sparingly (6.8%).
Edge · Payton TolleOrioles: 9.5% walk ratePayton Tolle: 6.8% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Kyle Bradish miss enough bats?
Kyle Bradish strikes hitters out at a 20.9% clip (45th percentile); Red Sox carry a 20.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · Red SoxKyle Bradish: 20.9% K rateRed Sox: 20.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Kyle Bradish limit Red Sox's power?
Red Sox rank in the 57th percentile in extra-base production, while Kyle Bradish sits in the 33rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Red SoxRed Sox: 0.345 TB/PAKyle Bradish: 0.364 TB/PA allowed (654 PA)High confidence
Can Kyle Bradish command the strike zone?
Red Sox walk in 8.1% of trips; Kyle Bradish allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.6%).
Edge · Kyle BradishRed Sox: 8.1% walk rateKyle Bradish: 9.6% walks allowedHigh confidence

Pitcher Trends

Payton Tolle
Payton Tolle
Boston Red Sox · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts7.5/start
Hits allowed5.2/start
6+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
27% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Kyle Bradish
Kyle Bradish
Baltimore Orioles · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.9/start
Hits allowed6.4/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 66+ Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
21% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Trevor Story
Trevor Story
Boston Red Sox · 0.440 hit rate · 0.600 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L109 / 10L2519 / 256-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 138% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 6 games.
Coby Mayo
Coby Mayo
Baltimore Orioles · 0.290 hit rate · 0.484 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L109 / 10L2516 / 25
On-base rate is up 56% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 19%.
Roman Anthony
Roman Anthony
Boston Red Sox · 0.294 hit rate · 0.588 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 125% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 7 games.
Willson Contreras
Willson Contreras
Boston Red Sox · 0.062 hit rate · 0.188 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2514 / 25
Hit rate is down 72% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 4 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 44%.
Leody Taveras
Leody Taveras
Baltimore Orioles · 0.061 hit rate · 0.121 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L103 / 10L2512 / 25
Hit rate is down 69% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 42%.
Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso
Baltimore Orioles · 0.093 hit rate · 0.163 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 62% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 30%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

75
Roman Anthony
Roman Anthony
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
73
Trevor Story
Trevor Story
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
72
Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar Henderson
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
70
Blaze Alexander
Blaze Alexander
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
66
Nick Sogard
Nick Sogard
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt.

Early edge Red Sox Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 52nd percentile in combined suppression.
  • Red Sox are trending steady; Orioles are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Can Orioles handle Payton Tolle's strikeout stuff?
Orioles have been a below-average contact team while Payton Tolle misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Orioles contact percentile: 24
Is Trevor Story the one to watch?
Trevor Story enters as Red Sox's hottest bat. Hit rate is up 138% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 6 games.
0.440 hit rate · 0.600 TB/PA · 0.185 hit rate · 0.272 TB/PA
Can Willson Contreras snap out of it?
Willson Contreras has cooled off. Hit rate is down 72% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 4 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 44%.
0.062 hit rate · 0.188 TB/PA · 0.226 hit rate · 0.422 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-06, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.