Milwaukee Brewers
87-54 · 1st in NL Central
Bats heating upLHP Shane Drohan · Balanced starter
@
Cincinnati Reds
67-73 · 5th in NL Central, 19.5 GB
Bats heating upRHP Rhett Lowder · Pitches to contact
Team Identity
Milwaukee Brewers
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,707 PA.
A patient, contact-oriented offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerWell Below19
ContactAbove Avg76
Plate DisciplineElite96
SpeedAverage65
RISPAbove Avg76
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 17% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Cincinnati Reds
Season-to-date, 140 games, 5,439 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage61
ContactWell Below4
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg68
SpeedAverage50
RISPWell Below10
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 12% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Reds' offense is defined by being patient, and this game tests whether Brewers can match it.
Swing Factor
Shane Drohan strikes hitters out at a 23.2% clip (63rd percentile); Reds carry a 24.3% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Brewers are trending up and Reds are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Shane Drohan miss enough bats?
Shane Drohan strikes hitters out at a 23.2% clip (63rd percentile); Reds carry a 24.3% strikeout rate.
Edge · Shane DrohanShane Drohan: 23.2% K rateReds: 24.3% K rateHigh confidence
Can Rhett Lowder miss enough bats?
Rhett Lowder strikes hitters out at a 17.3% clip (19th percentile); Brewers carry a 20.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · BrewersRhett Lowder: 17.3% K rateBrewers: 20.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can Rhett Lowder command the strike zone?
Brewers walk in 10.0% of trips; Rhett Lowder allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.5%).
Edge · Rhett LowderBrewers: 10.0% walk rateRhett Lowder: 8.5% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Shane Drohan command the strike zone?
Reds walk in 9.1% of trips; Shane Drohan allows walks sparingly (7.8%).
Edge · Shane DrohanReds: 9.1% walk rateShane Drohan: 7.8% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Shane Drohan limit Reds' power?
Reds rank in the 61st percentile in extra-base production, while Shane Drohan sits in the 46th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · RedsReds: 0.339 TB/PAShane Drohan: 0.345 TB/PA allowed (475 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Shane Drohan
Milwaukee Brewers · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.0/start
Hits allowed5.8/start
5+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 66+ Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
23% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Rhett Lowder
Cincinnati Reds · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.6/start
Hits allowed6.0/start
5 or fewer Strikeouts — 6 of last 66+ Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
17% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Hector Rodriguez
Cincinnati Reds · 0.300 hit rate · 0.650 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L109 / 10L2513 / 224-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 180% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 9 games.
Joey Ortiz
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.333 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2517 / 253-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 62% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 3%.
Christian Yelich
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.324 hit rate · 0.529 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 67% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
Edwin Arroyo
Cincinnati Reds · 0.056 hit rate · 0.111 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2513 / 25
Hit rate is down 75% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
Matt McLain
Cincinnati Reds · 0.071 hit rate · 0.071 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 76% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games.
Gary Sanchez
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.062 hit rate · 0.250 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L102 / 10L2510 / 25
Hit rate is down 63% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 31%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
87
Elly De La Cruz
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
82
William Contreras
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
82
Jackson Chourio
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
79
Sal Stewart
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
76
Nathaniel Lowe
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
JJ Bleday
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Reds bring more power.
Early edge Brewers Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 39th percentile in combined suppression.
- Brewers are trending up; Reds are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Can Reds handle Shane Drohan's strikeout stuff?
Reds have been a below-average contact team while Shane Drohan misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Reds contact percentile: 4
Does Reds' power tilt the game?
Reds bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Brewers power pct 19 vs Reds 61
Can Edwin Arroyo snap out of it?
Edwin Arroyo has cooled off. Hit rate is down 75% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
0.056 hit rate · 0.111 TB/PA · 0.221 hit rate · 0.255 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-04, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.