Sports Today Wednesday, September 2
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 2, 2026
San Diego Padres
73-67 · 3rd in NL West, 10 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Casey Mize · Command specialist
@
Cincinnati Reds
67-73 · 5th in NL Central, 19.5 GB
Bats heating up
LHP Brandon Williamson · Pitches to contact
MLB · Great American Ball Park · 9:40 AM PT

Team Identity

San Diego Padres
Season-to-date, 139 games, 5,394 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Well Below24
Contact
Below Avg33
Plate Discipline
Average57
Speed
Above Avg77
RISP
Average54
Recent Form
Trending Down
Total bases per PA is down 10% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Cincinnati Reds
Season-to-date, 139 games, 5,401 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Average57
Contact
Well Below4
Plate Discipline
Above Avg68
Speed
Average52
RISP
Well Below11
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 19% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Reds bring the more patient profile, while Padres lean on being aggressive.

Swing Factor

Brandon Williamson strikes hitters out at a 14.7% clip (8th percentile); Padres carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Padres are trending down and Reds are trending up over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Brandon Williamson miss enough bats?
Brandon Williamson strikes hitters out at a 14.7% clip (8th percentile); Padres carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · PadresBrandon Williamson: 14.7% K ratePadres: 20.8% K rateLow confidence
Can Casey Mize miss enough bats?
Casey Mize strikes hitters out at a 20.5% clip (44th percentile); Reds carry a 24.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · RedsCasey Mize: 20.5% K rateReds: 24.4% K rateHigh confidence
Can Brandon Williamson limit Padres' power?
Padres rank in the 24th percentile in extra-base production, while Brandon Williamson sits in the 49th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Brandon WilliamsonPadres: 0.329 TB/PABrandon Williamson: 0.341 TB/PA allowed (129 PA)Low confidence
Can Casey Mize command the strike zone?
Reds walk in 9.2% of trips; Casey Mize allows walks sparingly (5.8%).
Edge · Casey MizeReds: 9.2% walk rateCasey Mize: 5.8% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Brandon Williamson command the strike zone?
Padres walk in 8.9% of trips; Brandon Williamson allows walks at a fairly typical rate (15.5%).
Edge · Brandon WilliamsonPadres: 8.9% walk rateBrandon Williamson: 15.5% walks allowedLow confidence

Pitcher Trends

Casey Mize
Casey Mize
San Diego Padres · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.0/start
Hits allowed5.0/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
21% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Brandon Williamson
Brandon Williamson
Cincinnati Reds · 6 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.2/start
Hits allowed4.3/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 6 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
15% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Hector Rodriguez
Hector Rodriguez
Cincinnati Reds · 0.325 hit rate · 0.675 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L109 / 10L2512 / 213-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 413% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 9 games.
Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz
Cincinnati Reds · 0.370 hit rate · 0.543 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L109 / 10L2515 / 25
Hit rate is up 70% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games.
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
San Diego Padres · 0.261 hit rate · 0.543 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2516 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 53% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 20%.
Luis Rengifo
Luis Rengifo
San Diego Padres · 0.095 hit rate · 0.143 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2514 / 25
Hit rate is down 64% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 24%.
Luis Campusano
Luis Campusano
San Diego Padres · 0.143 hit rate · 0.143 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L102 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 64% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
Jake Cronenworth
Jake Cronenworth
San Diego Padres · 0.159 hit rate · 0.250 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L105 / 10L2516 / 25
On-base rate is down 32% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 32%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

84
Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
82
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
81
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
76
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
76
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
75
Hector Rodriguez
Hector Rodriguez
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Reds bring stronger recent momentum. Reds bring more power.

Early edge Padres Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Elevated
  • Both probable starters grade around the 45th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Padres are trending down; Reds are trending up.

Storylines to Watch

Can Reds handle Casey Mize's strikeout stuff?
Reds have been a below-average contact team while Casey Mize misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Reds contact percentile: 4
Is Hector Rodriguez the one to watch?
Hector Rodriguez enters as Reds' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 413% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 9 games.
0.325 hit rate · 0.675 TB/PA · 0.105 hit rate · 0.132 TB/PA
Can Luis Rengifo snap out of it?
Luis Rengifo has cooled off. Hit rate is down 64% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 24%.
0.095 hit rate · 0.143 TB/PA · 0.268 hit rate · 0.378 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-02, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.