Milwaukee Brewers
88-55 · 1st in NL Central
Bats heating upLHP Kyle Harrison · Elite strikeout stuff · plus control
@
Cincinnati Reds
68-74 · 5th in NL Central, 19.5 GB
Bats heating upRHP Brady Singer · Pitches to contact
Team Identity
Milwaukee Brewers
Season-to-date, 143 games, 5,797 PA.
A patient, opportunistic offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerWell Below19
ContactAbove Avg75
Plate DisciplineElite96
SpeedAbove Avg68
RISPAbove Avg81
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 15% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Cincinnati Reds
Season-to-date, 142 games, 5,515 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage63
ContactWell Below7
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg69
SpeedAverage53
RISPWell Below10
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 28% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Reds' offense is defined by being patient, and this game tests whether Brewers can match it.
Swing Factor
Kyle Harrison strikes hitters out at a 28.5% clip (90th percentile); Reds carry a 24.4% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Brewers are trending up and Reds are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Kyle Harrison miss enough bats?
Kyle Harrison strikes hitters out at a 28.5% clip (90th percentile); Reds carry a 24.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · Kyle HarrisonKyle Harrison: 28.5% K rateReds: 24.4% K rateHigh confidence
Can Brady Singer miss enough bats?
Brady Singer strikes hitters out at a 17.9% clip (24th percentile); Brewers carry a 20.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · BrewersBrady Singer: 17.9% K rateBrewers: 20.7% K rateHigh confidence
Can Brady Singer command the strike zone?
Brewers walk in 10.0% of trips; Brady Singer allows walks sparingly (6.9%).
Edge · Brady SingerBrewers: 10.0% walk rateBrady Singer: 6.9% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Kyle Harrison limit Reds' power?
Reds rank in the 63rd percentile in extra-base production, while Kyle Harrison sits in the 24th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · RedsReds: 0.341 TB/PAKyle Harrison: 0.382 TB/PA allowed (456 PA)High confidence
Can Kyle Harrison command the strike zone?
Reds walk in 9.1% of trips; Kyle Harrison allows walks sparingly (6.4%).
Edge · Kyle HarrisonReds: 9.1% walk rateKyle Harrison: 6.4% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Kyle Harrison
Milwaukee Brewers · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.4/start
Hits allowed5.1/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
29% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Brady Singer
Cincinnati Reds · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.4/start
Hits allowed6.8/start
5+ Hits Allowed — 6 of last 65 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 6
18% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Elly De La Cruz
Cincinnati Reds · 0.400 hit rate · 0.533 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L109 / 10L2517 / 254-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 80% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 22%.
Hector Rodriguez
Cincinnati Reds · 0.295 hit rate · 0.591 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2514 / 24
Total bases per PA is up 131% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
Dane Myers
Cincinnati Reds · 0.357 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 252-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 67% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 7 games.
Edwin Arroyo
Cincinnati Reds · 0.050 hit rate · 0.100 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2513 / 25
Hit rate is down 77% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 35%.
Brice Turang
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.171 hit rate · 0.220 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 39% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 37%.
Garrett Mitchell
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.174 hit rate · 0.217 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 37% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 7 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
82
Jackson Chourio
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
81
Elly De La Cruz
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
79
Sal Stewart
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
76
Nathaniel Lowe
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Dane Myers
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Tyler Stephenson
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Reds bring more power.
Early edge Brewers Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 45th percentile in combined suppression.
- Brewers are trending up; Reds are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Can Reds handle Kyle Harrison's strikeout stuff?
Reds have been a below-average contact team while Kyle Harrison misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Reds contact percentile: 7
Does Reds' power tilt the game?
Reds bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Brewers power pct 19 vs Reds 63
Can Edwin Arroyo snap out of it?
Edwin Arroyo has cooled off. Hit rate is down 77% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 35%.
0.050 hit rate · 0.100 TB/PA · 0.221 hit rate · 0.255 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-06, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.