Sports Today Saturday, September 5
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 5, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers
88-54 · 1st in NL Central
Bats heating up
RHP Dustin May · Balanced starter
@
Cincinnati Reds
67-74 · 5th in NL Central, 20.5 GB
Bats heating up
LHP Andrew Abbott · Pitches to contact
MLB · Great American Ball Park · 3:40 PM PT

Team Identity

Milwaukee Brewers
Season-to-date, 142 games, 5,757 PA.
A patient, opportunistic offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Well Below20
Contact
Above Avg76
Plate Discipline
Elite96
Speed
Above Avg67
RISP
Above Avg80
Recent Form
Trending Up
Hit rate is up 18% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Cincinnati Reds
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,478 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Average62
Contact
Well Below5
Plate Discipline
Above Avg71
Speed
Average52
RISP
Well Below10
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 15% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Reds' offense is defined by being patient, and this game tests whether Brewers can match it.

Swing Factor

Andrew Abbott strikes hitters out at a 17.1% clip (18th percentile); Brewers carry a 20.6% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Brewers are trending up and Reds are trending up over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Andrew Abbott miss enough bats?
Andrew Abbott strikes hitters out at a 17.1% clip (18th percentile); Brewers carry a 20.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · BrewersAndrew Abbott: 17.1% K rateBrewers: 20.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can Dustin May miss enough bats?
Dustin May strikes hitters out at a 21.6% clip (52nd percentile); Reds carry a 24.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · RedsDustin May: 21.6% K rateReds: 24.4% K rateHigh confidence
Can Andrew Abbott command the strike zone?
Brewers walk in 10.0% of trips; Andrew Abbott allows walks at a fairly typical rate (10.2%).
Edge · BrewersBrewers: 10.0% walk rateAndrew Abbott: 10.2% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Andrew Abbott limit Brewers' power?
Brewers rank in the 20th percentile in extra-base production, while Andrew Abbott sits in the 43rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Andrew AbbottBrewers: 0.335 TB/PAAndrew Abbott: 0.349 TB/PA allowed (674 PA)High confidence
Can Dustin May command the strike zone?
Reds walk in 9.2% of trips; Dustin May allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.0%).
Edge · Dustin MayReds: 9.2% walk rateDustin May: 8.0% walks allowedHigh confidence

Pitcher Trends

Dustin May
Dustin May
Milwaukee Brewers · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.6/start
Hits allowed4.8/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
22% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Andrew Abbott
Andrew Abbott
Cincinnati Reds · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.9/start
Hits allowed5.4/start
7+ Hits Allowed — 4 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
17% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Joey Ortiz
Joey Ortiz
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.346 hit rate · 0.538 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2517 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 72% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 4%.
Hector Rodriguez
Hector Rodriguez
Cincinnati Reds · 0.275 hit rate · 0.600 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2513 / 23
Total bases per PA is up 135% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games.
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.310 hit rate · 0.483 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2516 / 254-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 70% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
Edwin Arroyo
Edwin Arroyo
Cincinnati Reds · 0.050 hit rate · 0.100 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2513 / 25
Hit rate is down 77% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 35%.
Matt McLain
Matt McLain
Cincinnati Reds · 0.095 hit rate · 0.167 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 44% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games.
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.178 hit rate · 0.289 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 19% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 29%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

83
Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
80
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
78
William Contreras
William Contreras
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
77
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
73
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Reds bring more power.

Early edge Brewers Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 42nd percentile in combined suppression.
  • Brewers are trending up; Reds are trending up.

Storylines to Watch

Can Reds handle Dustin May's strikeout stuff?
Reds have been a below-average contact team while Dustin May misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Reds contact percentile: 5
Does Reds' power tilt the game?
Reds bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Brewers power pct 20 vs Reds 62
Can Edwin Arroyo snap out of it?
Edwin Arroyo has cooled off. Hit rate is down 77% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 35%.
0.050 hit rate · 0.100 TB/PA · 0.221 hit rate · 0.255 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-05, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.