Sports Today Tuesday, September 1
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 1, 2026
Toronto Blue Jays
68-70 · 5th in AL East, 14.5 GB
Bats heating up
RHP Spencer Arrighetti · Balanced starter
@
Cleveland Guardians
69-68 · 2nd in AL Central, 3 GB
Bats heating up
RHP Gavin Williams · Elite strikeout stuff
MLB · Progressive Field · 3:40 PM PT

Team Identity

Toronto Blue Jays
Season-to-date, 138 games, 5,262 PA.
A contact-oriented offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Well Below21
Contact
Above Avg76
Plate Discipline
Well Below16
Speed
Average52
RISP
Well Below20
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 18% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Cleveland Guardians
Season-to-date, 137 games, 5,381 PA.
An aggressive, patient offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Well Below6
Contact
Below Avg34
Plate Discipline
Above Avg70
Speed
Above Avg83
RISP
Well Below8
Recent Form
Trending Up
Hit rate is up 22% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Guardians bring the more aggressive profile, while Blue Jays lean on being contact-oriented.

Swing Factor

Gavin Williams strikes hitters out at a 31.2% clip (97th percentile); Blue Jays carry a 18.8% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Blue Jays are trending up and Guardians are trending up over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Gavin Williams miss enough bats?
Gavin Williams strikes hitters out at a 31.2% clip (97th percentile); Blue Jays carry a 18.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · Blue JaysGavin Williams: 31.2% K rateBlue Jays: 18.8% K rateHigh confidence
Can Spencer Arrighetti limit Guardians' power?
Guardians rank in the 6th percentile in extra-base production, while Spencer Arrighetti sits in the 77th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Spencer ArrighettiGuardians: 0.315 TB/PASpencer Arrighetti: 0.283 TB/PA allowed (448 PA)High confidence
Can Gavin Williams command the strike zone?
Blue Jays walk in 7.2% of trips; Gavin Williams allows walks sparingly (7.4%).
Edge · Gavin WilliamsBlue Jays: 7.2% walk rateGavin Williams: 7.4% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Spencer Arrighetti command the strike zone?
Guardians walk in 9.2% of trips; Spencer Arrighetti allows walks at a fairly typical rate (12.1%).
Edge · GuardiansGuardians: 9.2% walk rateSpencer Arrighetti: 12.1% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Spencer Arrighetti miss enough bats?
Spencer Arrighetti strikes hitters out at a 21.2% clip (48th percentile); Guardians carry a 20.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · GuardiansSpencer Arrighetti: 21.2% K rateGuardians: 20.6% K rateHigh confidence

Pitcher Trends

Spencer Arrighetti
Spencer Arrighetti
Toronto Blue Jays · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.4/start
Hits allowed3.9/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
21% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Gavin Williams
Gavin Williams
Cleveland Guardians · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts8.8/start
Hits allowed4.1/start
7+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
31% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
Cleveland Guardians · 0.318 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
On-base rate is up 144% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 18%.
George Springer
George Springer
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.444 hit rate · 0.722 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 255-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 123% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
Kazuma Okamoto
Kazuma Okamoto
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.214 hit rate · 0.524 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 39% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
Angel Genao
Angel Genao
Cleveland Guardians · 0.135 hit rate · 0.162 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2512 / 21
Total bases per PA is down 60% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 16%.
Charles McAdoo
Charles McAdoo
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.111 hit rate · 0.111 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2512 / 23
Total bases per PA is down 73% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 30%.
Ernie Clement
Ernie Clement
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.162 hit rate · 0.189 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L105 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 50% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 16%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

86
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
1+ Hit
Cleveland Guardians
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
78
Brett Bateman
Brett Bateman
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Jose Ramirez
Jose Ramirez
1+ Hit
Cleveland Guardians
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
1+ Hit
Cleveland Guardians
Why it stands out
Consistently reaching base
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
69
Alejandro Kirk
Alejandro Kirk
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
67
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
1+ Hit
Cleveland Guardians
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Recent plate-appearance volume is limited

Expected Game Shape

Starter-drivenModerate confidence

Runs may be at a premium if the starters hold form. Blue Jays bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.

Early edge Guardians Driver Pitching and command Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 62nd percentile in combined suppression.
  • Blue Jays are trending up; Guardians are trending up.

Storylines to Watch

Is Patrick Bailey the one to watch?
Patrick Bailey enters as Guardians' hottest bat. On-base rate is up 144% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 18%.
0.318 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA · 0.176 hit rate · 0.302 TB/PA
Can Angel Genao snap out of it?
Angel Genao has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 60% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 16%.
0.135 hit rate · 0.162 TB/PA · 0.298 hit rate · 0.404 TB/PA
Can Guardians handle Spencer Arrighetti's strikeout stuff?
Guardians have been a below-average contact team while Spencer Arrighetti misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Guardians contact percentile: 34
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-01, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.