Toronto Blue Jays
68-71 · 5th in AL East, 15.5 GB
Bats heating upRHP Dylan Cease · Elite strikeout stuff
@
Cleveland Guardians
70-68 · 2nd in AL Central, 3 GB
Bats heating upLHP Joey Cantillo · High-strikeout arm
Team Identity
Toronto Blue Jays
Season-to-date, 139 games, 5,296 PA.
A contact-oriented offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerWell Below22
ContactAbove Avg71
Plate DisciplineWell Below15
SpeedAverage52
RISPWell Below19
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 4% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Cleveland Guardians
Season-to-date, 138 games, 5,415 PA.
An aggressive, patient offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerWell Below6
ContactBelow Avg34
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg70
SpeedAbove Avg83
RISPWell Below8
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 22% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Guardians bring the more aggressive profile, while Blue Jays lean on being contact-oriented.
Swing Factor
Guardians rank in the 6th percentile in extra-base production, while Dylan Cease sits in the 96th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Blue Jays are trending up and Guardians are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Dylan Cease limit Guardians' power?
Guardians rank in the 6th percentile in extra-base production, while Dylan Cease sits in the 96th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Dylan CeaseGuardians: 0.316 TB/PADylan Cease: 0.220 TB/PA allowed (635 PA)High confidence
Can Dylan Cease miss enough bats?
Dylan Cease strikes hitters out at a 34.0% clip (98th percentile); Guardians carry a 20.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · Dylan CeaseDylan Cease: 34.0% K rateGuardians: 20.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Joey Cantillo miss enough bats?
Joey Cantillo strikes hitters out at a 23.5% clip (66th percentile); Blue Jays carry a 18.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · Blue JaysJoey Cantillo: 23.5% K rateBlue Jays: 18.9% K rateHigh confidence
Can Joey Cantillo command the strike zone?
Blue Jays walk in 7.1% of trips; Joey Cantillo allows walks at a fairly typical rate (11.2%).
Edge · Joey CantilloBlue Jays: 7.1% walk rateJoey Cantillo: 11.2% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Joey Cantillo limit Blue Jays' power?
Blue Jays rank in the 22nd percentile in extra-base production, while Joey Cantillo sits in the 53rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Joey CantilloBlue Jays: 0.336 TB/PAJoey Cantillo: 0.331 TB/PA allowed (614 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Dylan Cease
Toronto Blue Jays · 8 starts
Strikeouts8.6/start
Hits allowed3.2/start
7+ Strikeouts — 6 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
34% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Joey Cantillo
Cleveland Guardians · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.8/start
Hits allowed4.9/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 65 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
23% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Patrick Bailey
Cleveland Guardians · 0.286 hit rate · 0.619 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2511 / 252-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 107% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
George Springer
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.400 hit rate · 0.686 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 106% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games.
Angel Martinez
Cleveland Guardians · 0.296 hit rate · 0.556 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2517 / 252-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 70% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
Angel Genao
Cleveland Guardians · 0.143 hit rate · 0.257 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2513 / 22
Hit rate is down 51% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 14%.
Ernie Clement
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.139 hit rate · 0.167 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 56% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 14%.
Charles McAdoo
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.091 hit rate · 0.091 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2512 / 23
Total bases per PA is down 77% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
83
Steven Kwan
1+ Hit
Cleveland Guardians
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
81
Brett Bateman
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
76
Jose Ramirez
1+ Hit
Cleveland Guardians
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
71
Jo Adell
1+ Hit
Cleveland Guardians
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
70
George Springer
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent plate-appearance volume is limited
69
Alejandro Kirk
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
Starter-drivenModerate confidence
Runs may be at a premium if the starters hold form. Blue Jays bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.
Early edge Blue Jays Driver Pitching and command Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 63rd percentile in combined suppression.
- Blue Jays are trending up; Guardians are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Can Guardians handle Dylan Cease's strikeout stuff?
Guardians have been a below-average contact team while Dylan Cease misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Guardians contact percentile: 34
Is Patrick Bailey the one to watch?
Patrick Bailey enters as Guardians' hottest bat. On-base rate is up 107% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
0.286 hit rate · 0.619 TB/PA · 0.183 hit rate · 0.306 TB/PA
Can Angel Genao snap out of it?
Angel Genao has cooled off. Hit rate is down 51% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 14%.
0.143 hit rate · 0.257 TB/PA · 0.294 hit rate · 0.392 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-02, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.