St. Louis Cardinals
70-71 · 3rd in NL Central, 17 GB
Bats heating upRHP Andre Pallante · Pitches to contact
@
Colorado Rockies
54-86 · 5th in NL West, 29 GB
Steady at the plateRHP Ryan Feltner · Pitches to contact
Team Identity
St. Louis Cardinals
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,520 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerWell Below21
ContactAverage56
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg30
SpeedAverage60
RISPAverage51
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 13% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Colorado Rockies
Season-to-date, 140 games, 5,523 PA.
A contact-oriented, power-hitting offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be free-swinging.
PowerAbove Avg72
ContactAbove Avg73
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg30
SpeedAverage45
RISPAbove Avg71
Recent FormHolding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Rockies' offense is defined by being contact-oriented, and this game tests whether Cardinals can match it.
Swing Factor
Andre Pallante strikes hitters out at a 16.6% clip (15th percentile); Rockies carry a 22.1% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Cardinals are trending up and Rockies are holding steady over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Andre Pallante miss enough bats?
Andre Pallante strikes hitters out at a 16.6% clip (15th percentile); Rockies carry a 22.1% strikeout rate.
Edge · RockiesAndre Pallante: 16.6% K rateRockies: 22.1% K rateHigh confidence
Can Ryan Feltner miss enough bats?
Ryan Feltner strikes hitters out at a 15.9% clip (12th percentile); Cardinals carry a 20.1% strikeout rate.
Edge · CardinalsRyan Feltner: 15.9% K rateCardinals: 20.1% K rateHigh confidence
Can Ryan Feltner command the strike zone?
Cardinals walk in 8.1% of trips; Ryan Feltner allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.4%).
Edge · Ryan FeltnerCardinals: 8.1% walk rateRyan Feltner: 9.4% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Andre Pallante command the strike zone?
Rockies walk in 8.1% of trips; Andre Pallante allows walks sparingly (7.0%).
Edge · Andre PallanteRockies: 8.1% walk rateAndre Pallante: 7.0% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Ryan Feltner limit Cardinals' power?
Cardinals rank in the 21st percentile in extra-base production, while Ryan Feltner sits in the 7th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · CardinalsCardinals: 0.330 TB/PARyan Feltner: 0.432 TB/PA allowed (477 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Andre Pallante
St. Louis Cardinals · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.6/start
Hits allowed5.5/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
17% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Ryan Feltner
Colorado Rockies · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.2/start
Hits allowed6.9/start
6+ Hits Allowed — 5 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 6
16% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Thomas Saggese
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.444 hit rate · 0.944 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2512 / 254-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 282% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 17%.
Alec Burleson
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.159 hit rate · 0.159 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L105 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 63% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games.
Mickey Moniak
Colorado Rockies · 0.167 hit rate · 0.194 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 59% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games.
Nolan Gorman
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.083 hit rate · 0.250 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L102 / 10L255 / 25
On-base rate is down 53% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 42%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
77
Jake McCarthy
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
75
Ivan Herrera
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
71
Jordan Walker
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
70
Connor Norby
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
68
TJ Rumfield
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
62
Cole Carrigg
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Cardinals bring stronger recent momentum. Rockies bring more power.
Early edge Cardinals Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 32nd percentile in combined suppression.
- Cardinals are trending up; Rockies are trending steady.
Storylines to Watch
Is Thomas Saggese the one to watch?
Thomas Saggese enters as Cardinals' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 282% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 17%.
0.444 hit rate · 0.944 TB/PA · 0.165 hit rate · 0.247 TB/PA
Does Rockies' power tilt the game?
Rockies bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Cardinals power pct 21 vs Rockies 72
Can Alec Burleson snap out of it?
Alec Burleson has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 63% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games.
0.159 hit rate · 0.159 TB/PA · 0.255 hit rate · 0.428 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-04, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.