St. Louis Cardinals
71-71 · 3rd in NL Central, 17 GB
Bats heating upLHP Matthew Liberatore · Balanced starter
@
Colorado Rockies
54-87 · 5th in NL West, 30 GB
Bats heating upMason Adams
Team Identity
St. Louis Cardinals
Season-to-date, 142 games, 5,563 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerWell Below20
ContactAverage56
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg32
SpeedAverage62
RISPAverage56
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 12% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Colorado Rockies
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,567 PA.
A power-hitting, contact-oriented offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAbove Avg74
ContactAbove Avg71
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg31
SpeedAverage45
RISPAbove Avg67
Recent FormTrending Up
Walk rate is up 18% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Rockies' offense is defined by being power-hitting, and this game tests whether Cardinals can match it.
Swing Factor
Rockies rank in the 74th percentile in extra-base production, while Matthew Liberatore sits in the 14th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Cardinals are trending up and Rockies are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Matthew Liberatore limit Rockies' power?
Rockies rank in the 74th percentile in extra-base production, while Matthew Liberatore sits in the 14th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · RockiesRockies: 0.359 TB/PAMatthew Liberatore: 0.404 TB/PA allowed (621 PA)High confidence
Can Matthew Liberatore miss enough bats?
Matthew Liberatore strikes hitters out at a 22.7% clip (61st percentile); Rockies carry a 22.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · RockiesMatthew Liberatore: 22.7% K rateRockies: 22.0% K rateHigh confidence
How do Rockies handle left-handers?
Rockies have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.339 vs. 0.359 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Matthew Liberatorevs left-handers: 0.339 TB/PA (1725 PA)overall: 0.359 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Matthew Liberatore command the strike zone?
Rockies walk in 8.1% of trips; Matthew Liberatore allows walks sparingly (7.6%).
Edge · Matthew LiberatoreRockies: 8.1% walk rateMatthew Liberatore: 7.6% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Matthew Liberatore
St. Louis Cardinals · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.6/start
Hits allowed5.9/start
6+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
23% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Thomas Saggese
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.409 hit rate · 0.864 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L107 / 10L2512 / 255-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 250% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 18%.
TJ Rumfield
Colorado Rockies · 0.277 hit rate · 0.468 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L109 / 10L2518 / 259-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 6%.
Bryan Torres
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.333 hit rate · 0.333 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 25
Hit rate is up 73% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games.
Alec Burleson
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.136 hit rate · 0.136 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2519 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 20%.
Mickey Moniak
Colorado Rockies · 0.132 hit rate · 0.158 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 67% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games.
Jose Fermin
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.163 hit rate · 0.163 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 50% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 16%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
79
Jake McCarthy
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
77
TJ Rumfield
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
75
Ivan Herrera
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
JJ Wetherholt
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
69
Jordan Walker
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Recent form supports the pick
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
66
Connor Norby
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Recent form supports the pick
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
Expected Game Shape
UncertainLow confidence
Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Rockies bring more power.
Early edge Rockies Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Moderate
- At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
- Cardinals are trending up; Rockies are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Does Rockies' power tilt the game?
Rockies bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Cardinals power pct 20 vs Rockies 74
Is Thomas Saggese the one to watch?
Thomas Saggese enters as Cardinals' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 250% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 18%.
0.409 hit rate · 0.864 TB/PA · 0.165 hit rate · 0.247 TB/PA
Can Alec Burleson snap out of it?
Alec Burleson has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 20%.
0.136 hit rate · 0.136 TB/PA · 0.256 hit rate · 0.428 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-05, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.