Sports Today Friday, September 4
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 4, 2026
Arizona Diamondbacks
74-67 · 2nd in NL West, 9.5 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Merrill Kelly · Pitches to contact
@
Houston Astros
72-69 · 1st in AL West
Offense cooling lately
RHP Cristian Javier · Balanced starter
MLB · Daikin Park · 5:10 PM PT

Team Identity

Arizona Diamondbacks
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,508 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Below Avg37
Contact
Average56
Plate Discipline
Average52
Speed
Above Avg68
RISP
Average46
Recent Form
Trending Down
Walk rate is down 25% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Houston Astros
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,464 PA.
A power-hitting offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be station-to-station. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Above Avg77
Contact
Below Avg43
Plate Discipline
Average52
Speed
Well Below8
RISP
Average64
Recent Form
Trending Down
Hit rate is down 11% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Astros bring the more power-hitting profile, while D-backs lean on being aggressive.

Swing Factor

Astros rank in the 77th percentile in extra-base production, while Merrill Kelly sits in the 16th percentile at suppressing total bases.

Momentum

D-backs are trending down and Astros are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Merrill Kelly limit Astros' power?
Astros rank in the 77th percentile in extra-base production, while Merrill Kelly sits in the 16th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · AstrosAstros: 0.353 TB/PAMerrill Kelly: 0.401 TB/PA allowed (641 PA)High confidence
Can Merrill Kelly miss enough bats?
Merrill Kelly strikes hitters out at a 14.8% clip (8th percentile); Astros carry a 21.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · AstrosMerrill Kelly: 14.8% K rateAstros: 21.0% K rateHigh confidence
Can Cristian Javier limit D-backs' power?
D-backs rank in the 37th percentile in extra-base production, while Cristian Javier sits in the 8th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · D-backsD-backs: 0.339 TB/PACristian Javier: 0.426 TB/PA allowed (209 PA)Moderate confidence
Can Cristian Javier miss enough bats?
Cristian Javier strikes hitters out at a 20.1% clip (40th percentile); D-backs carry a 18.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · D-backsCristian Javier: 20.1% K rateD-backs: 18.6% K rateModerate confidence
How do D-backs handle right-handers?
D-backs have produced worse against right-handers this season (0.325 vs. 0.339 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Cristian Javiervs right-handers: 0.325 TB/PA (3981 PA)overall: 0.339 TB/PAModerate confidence

Pitcher Trends

Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly
Arizona Diamondbacks · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.1/start
Hits allowed4.9/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
15% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Cristian Javier
Cristian Javier
Houston Astros · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.5/start
Hits allowed5.5/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
20% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Lars Nootbaar
Lars Nootbaar
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.259 hit rate · 0.556 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 126% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games.
Yainer Diaz
Yainer Diaz
Houston Astros · 0.280 hit rate · 0.600 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 62% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 12%.
Daulton Varsho
Daulton Varsho
Houston Astros · 0.179 hit rate · 0.333 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 28% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 18%.
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.071 hit rate · 0.143 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2514 / 25
Hit rate is down 66% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 29%.
Ildemaro Vargas
Ildemaro Vargas
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.154 hit rate · 0.154 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 58% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 18%.
Nolan Arenado
Nolan Arenado
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.147 hit rate · 0.176 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 53% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games.

Players Positioned to Succeed

72
Geraldo Perdomo
Geraldo Perdomo
1+ Hit
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
69
Jeremy Pena
Jeremy Pena
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
69
Isaac Paredes
Isaac Paredes
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
67
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
66
Jose Altuve
Jose Altuve
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
66
Daulton Varsho
Daulton Varsho
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Astros bring more power.

Early edge Astros Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 22nd percentile in combined suppression.
  • D-backs are trending down; Astros are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Does Astros' power tilt the game?
Astros bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
D-backs power pct 37 vs Astros 77
Is Lars Nootbaar the one to watch?
Lars Nootbaar enters as D-backs' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 126% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games.
0.259 hit rate · 0.556 TB/PA · 0.151 hit rate · 0.245 TB/PA
Can Corbin Carroll snap out of it?
Corbin Carroll has cooled off. Hit rate is down 66% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 29%.
0.071 hit rate · 0.143 TB/PA · 0.213 hit rate · 0.414 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-04, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.