Arizona Diamondbacks
74-68 · 3rd in NL West, 10.5 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Brandon Pfaadt · Pitches to contact
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Houston Astros
73-69 · 1st in AL West
Offense cooling latelyEthan Pecko
Team Identity
Arizona Diamondbacks
Season-to-date, 142 games, 5,545 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerBelow Avg36
ContactAverage54
Plate DisciplineAverage53
SpeedAbove Avg68
RISPBelow Avg42
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 16% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Houston Astros
Season-to-date, 142 games, 5,495 PA.
A power-hitting offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be station-to-station. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAbove Avg78
ContactBelow Avg45
Plate DisciplineAverage51
SpeedWell Below6
RISPAverage63
Recent FormTrending Down
Hit rate is down 16% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Astros bring the more power-hitting profile, while D-backs lean on being aggressive.
Swing Factor
Brandon Pfaadt strikes hitters out at a 15.9% clip (12th percentile); Astros carry a 21.0% strikeout rate.
Momentum
D-backs are trending down and Astros are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Brandon Pfaadt miss enough bats?
Brandon Pfaadt strikes hitters out at a 15.9% clip (12th percentile); Astros carry a 21.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · AstrosBrandon Pfaadt: 15.9% K rateAstros: 21.0% K rateHigh confidence
Can Brandon Pfaadt limit Astros' power?
Astros rank in the 78th percentile in extra-base production, while Brandon Pfaadt sits in the 45th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · AstrosAstros: 0.353 TB/PABrandon Pfaadt: 0.346 TB/PA allowed (459 PA)High confidence
How do Astros handle right-handers?
Astros have produced better against right-handers this season (0.357 vs. 0.353 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Astrosvs right-handers: 0.357 TB/PA (4145 PA)overall: 0.353 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Brandon Pfaadt command the strike zone?
Astros walk in 8.5% of trips; Brandon Pfaadt allows walks sparingly (5.9%).
Edge · Brandon PfaadtAstros: 8.5% walk rateBrandon Pfaadt: 5.9% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Brandon Pfaadt
Arizona Diamondbacks · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.6/start
Hits allowed5.0/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
16% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Ethan Pecko
Houston Astros · 3 starts
Strikeouts3.0/start
Hits allowed3.7/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 35 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 3
15% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Lars Nootbaar
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.250 hit rate · 0.536 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 131% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games.
Geraldo Perdomo
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.286 hit rate · 0.286 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L109 / 10L2518 / 252-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 47% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games.
Yainer Diaz
Houston Astros · 0.261 hit rate · 0.478 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2517 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 20% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games.
Corbin Carroll
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.070 hit rate · 0.140 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2514 / 25
Hit rate is down 67% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 28%.
Ildemaro Vargas
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.139 hit rate · 0.139 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 62% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 17%.
Nolan Arenado
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.143 hit rate · 0.171 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 55% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
74
Carlos Correa
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Geraldo Perdomo
1+ Hit
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
66
Yordan Alvarez
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
65
Jeremy Pena
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Recent form supports the pick
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
62
Jose Altuve
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Recent form supports the pick
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
62
Daulton Varsho
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
Expected Game Shape
UncertainLow confidence
Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Astros bring more power.
Early edge Astros Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Moderate
- At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
- D-backs are trending down; Astros are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Does Astros' power tilt the game?
Astros bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
D-backs power pct 36 vs Astros 78
Is Lars Nootbaar the one to watch?
Lars Nootbaar enters as D-backs' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 131% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games.
0.250 hit rate · 0.536 TB/PA · 0.143 hit rate · 0.232 TB/PA
Can Corbin Carroll snap out of it?
Corbin Carroll has cooled off. Hit rate is down 67% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 28%.
0.070 hit rate · 0.140 TB/PA · 0.212 hit rate · 0.411 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-05, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.