Sports Today Tuesday, September 1
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 1, 2026
Miami Marlins
69-69 · 3rd in NL East, 13 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Tyler Phillips · Pitches to contact
@
Kansas City Royals
62-76 · 5th in AL Central, 10.5 GB
Bats heating up
RHP Randy Dobnak · Pitches to contact
MLB · Kauffman Stadium, hits run 5% above average here · 4:40 PM PT

Team Identity

Miami Marlins
Season-to-date, 137 games, 5,383 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Below Avg27
Contact
Average56
Plate Discipline
Average50
Speed
Above Avg82
RISP
Below Avg36
Recent Form
Trending Down
Total bases per PA is down 26% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Kansas City Royals
Season-to-date, 138 games, 5,381 PA.
An aggressive, contact-oriented offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Average53
Contact
Above Avg67
Plate Discipline
Well Below18
Speed
Above Avg75
RISP
Well Below20
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 17% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Royals' offense is defined by being aggressive, and this game tests whether Marlins can match it.

Swing Factor

Randy Dobnak strikes hitters out at a 14.9% clip (10th percentile); Marlins carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Marlins are trending down and Royals are trending up over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Randy Dobnak miss enough bats?
Randy Dobnak strikes hitters out at a 14.9% clip (10th percentile); Marlins carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · MarlinsRandy Dobnak: 14.9% K rateMarlins: 20.8% K rateModerate confidence
Can Randy Dobnak limit Marlins' power?
Marlins rank in the 27th percentile in extra-base production, while Randy Dobnak sits in the 69th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Randy DobnakMarlins: 0.335 TB/PARandy Dobnak: 0.298 TB/PA allowed (228 PA)Moderate confidence
Can Tyler Phillips miss enough bats?
Tyler Phillips strikes hitters out at a 18.0% clip (26th percentile); Royals carry a 20.1% strikeout rate.
Edge · RoyalsTyler Phillips: 18.0% K rateRoyals: 20.1% K rateHigh confidence
Can Tyler Phillips command the strike zone?
Royals walk in 8.0% of trips; Tyler Phillips allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.2%).
Edge · Tyler PhillipsRoyals: 8.0% walk rateTyler Phillips: 9.2% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Marlins handle right-handers?
Marlins have produced better against right-handers this season (0.345 vs. 0.335 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Marlinsvs right-handers: 0.345 TB/PA (3894 PA)overall: 0.335 TB/PAModerate confidence

Pitcher Trends

Tyler Phillips
Tyler Phillips
Miami Marlins · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.0/start
Hits allowed4.9/start
5 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
18% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Randy Dobnak
Randy Dobnak
Kansas City Royals · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.8/start
Hits allowed5.1/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
15% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Vinnie Pasquantino
Vinnie Pasquantino
Kansas City Royals · 0.214 hit rate · 0.405 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2519 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 38% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
Kyle Isbel
Kyle Isbel
Kansas City Royals · 0.250 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 74% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games.
Heriberto Hernandez
Heriberto Hernandez
Miami Marlins · 0.213 hit rate · 0.489 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 28% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 19%.
Griffin Conine
Griffin Conine
Miami Marlins · 0.056 hit rate · 0.056 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 89% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 39%.
Esteury Ruiz
Esteury Ruiz
Miami Marlins · 0.080 hit rate · 0.080 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 78% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 44%.
Joe Mack
Joe Mack
Miami Marlins · 0.148 hit rate · 0.185 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 51% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games.

Players Positioned to Succeed

77
Salvador Perez
Salvador Perez
1+ Hit
Kansas City Royals
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
77
Vinnie Pasquantino
Vinnie Pasquantino
1+ Hit
Kansas City Royals
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
77
Jac Caglianone
Jac Caglianone
1+ Hit
Kansas City Royals
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Bobby Witt Jr.
Bobby Witt Jr.
1+ Hit
Kansas City Royals
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Heriberto Hernandez
Heriberto Hernandez
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Otto Lopez
Otto Lopez
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted

Expected Game Shape

Contact-heavyModerate confidence

Offense likely comes from stringing hits together. Royals bring stronger recent momentum. Royals bring more power.

Early edge Marlins Driver Traffic and situational hitting Volatility Elevated
  • Both probable starters grade around the 40th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Marlins are trending down; Royals are trending up.

Storylines to Watch

Can Griffin Conine snap out of it?
Griffin Conine has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 89% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 39%.
0.056 hit rate · 0.056 TB/PA · 0.240 hit rate · 0.485 TB/PA
Is Vinnie Pasquantino the one to watch?
Vinnie Pasquantino enters as Royals' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 38% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
0.214 hit rate · 0.405 TB/PA · 0.194 hit rate · 0.293 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-01, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.