Sports Today Sunday, September 6
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 6, 2026
Toronto Blue Jays
72-71 · 4th in AL East, 13.5 GB
Bats heating up
RHP Spencer Arrighetti · Balanced starter
@
Kansas City Royals
63-80 · 5th in AL Central, 11.5 GB
Bats heating up
RHP Randy Dobnak · Pitches to contact
MLB · Kauffman Stadium, hits run 5% above average here · 11:10 AM PT

Team Identity

Toronto Blue Jays
Season-to-date, 143 games, 5,474 PA.
A contact-oriented offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Well Below22
Contact
Above Avg77
Plate Discipline
Well Below14
Speed
Average54
RISP
Below Avg32
Recent Form
Trending Up
Walk rate is up 21% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Kansas City Royals
Season-to-date, 143 games, 5,572 PA.
An aggressive, contact-oriented offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be inconsistent with runners in scoring position. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Average57
Contact
Above Avg68
Plate Discipline
Well Below19
Speed
Above Avg75
RISP
Well Below19
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 13% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Royals bring the more aggressive profile, while Blue Jays lean on being contact-oriented.

Swing Factor

Randy Dobnak strikes hitters out at a 15.7% clip (11th percentile); Blue Jays carry a 18.8% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Blue Jays are trending up and Royals are trending up over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Randy Dobnak miss enough bats?
Randy Dobnak strikes hitters out at a 15.7% clip (11th percentile); Blue Jays carry a 18.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · Blue JaysRandy Dobnak: 15.7% K rateBlue Jays: 18.8% K rateModerate confidence
Can Randy Dobnak command the strike zone?
Blue Jays walk in 7.2% of trips; Randy Dobnak allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.0%).
Edge · Randy DobnakBlue Jays: 7.2% walk rateRandy Dobnak: 9.0% walks allowedModerate confidence
Can Randy Dobnak limit Blue Jays' power?
Blue Jays rank in the 22nd percentile in extra-base production, while Randy Dobnak sits in the 56th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Randy DobnakBlue Jays: 0.337 TB/PARandy Dobnak: 0.325 TB/PA allowed (255 PA)Moderate confidence
Can Spencer Arrighetti command the strike zone?
Royals walk in 8.0% of trips; Spencer Arrighetti allows walks at a fairly typical rate (11.9%).
Edge · Spencer ArrighettiRoyals: 8.0% walk rateSpencer Arrighetti: 11.9% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Spencer Arrighetti miss enough bats?
Spencer Arrighetti strikes hitters out at a 21.0% clip (46th percentile); Royals carry a 19.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · RoyalsSpencer Arrighetti: 21.0% K rateRoyals: 19.9% K rateHigh confidence

Pitcher Trends

Spencer Arrighetti
Spencer Arrighetti
Toronto Blue Jays · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.4/start
Hits allowed3.9/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
21% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Randy Dobnak
Randy Dobnak
Kansas City Royals · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.1/start
Hits allowed5.5/start
6+ Hits Allowed — 4 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
16% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
Kansas City Royals · 0.289 hit rate · 0.733 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 116% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 20%.
Myles Straw
Myles Straw
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.345 hit rate · 0.414 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2512 / 252-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 95% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
Josh Rojas
Josh Rojas
Kansas City Royals · 0.300 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 91% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
Ernie Clement
Ernie Clement
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.154 hit rate · 0.179 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L105 / 10L2515 / 254-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 52% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 13%.
Kyle Isbel
Kyle Isbel
Kansas City Royals · 0.138 hit rate · 0.172 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 46% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 28%.
Alejandro Kirk
Alejandro Kirk
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.222 hit rate · 0.333 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2519 / 252-game hit streak
On-base rate is down 37% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 17%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

80
Brett Bateman
Brett Bateman
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
77
Nathan Lukes
Nathan Lukes
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
76
Salvador Perez
Salvador Perez
1+ Hit
Kansas City Royals
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Bobby Witt Jr.
Bobby Witt Jr.
1+ Hit
Kansas City Royals
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Kazuma Okamoto
Kazuma Okamoto
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Nick Loftin
Nick Loftin
1+ Hit
Kansas City Royals
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk

Expected Game Shape

Contact-heavyModerate confidence

Offense likely comes from stringing hits together. Royals bring more power.

Early edge Blue Jays Driver Traffic and situational hitting Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 45th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Blue Jays are trending up; Royals are trending up.

Storylines to Watch

Is Carter Jensen the one to watch?
Carter Jensen enters as Royals' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 116% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 20%.
0.289 hit rate · 0.733 TB/PA · 0.186 hit rate · 0.340 TB/PA
Can Ernie Clement snap out of it?
Ernie Clement has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 52% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 13%.
0.154 hit rate · 0.179 TB/PA · 0.266 hit rate · 0.376 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-06, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.