Sports Today Thursday, September 3
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 3, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals
70-70 · 3rd in NL Central, 17 GB
Bats heating up
Quinn Mathews
@
Los Angeles Dodgers
82-57 · 1st in NL West
Offense cooling lately
LHP Tarik Skubal · Elite strikeout stuff · plus control
MLB · UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, hits run 8% below average here · 7:10 PM PT

Team Identity

St. Louis Cardinals
Season-to-date, 140 games, 5,479 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Well Below21
Contact
Average54
Plate Discipline
Below Avg33
Speed
Average60
RISP
Average53
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 15% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Season-to-date, 139 games, 5,468 PA.
A contact-oriented, opportunistic offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be station-to-station. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Above Avg80
Contact
Elite95
Plate Discipline
Elite90
Speed
Below Avg28
RISP
Elite93
Recent Form
Trending Down
Total bases per PA is down 27% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Dodgers' offense is defined by being contact-oriented, and this game tests whether Cardinals can match it.

Swing Factor

Tarik Skubal strikes hitters out at a 30.6% clip (96th percentile); Cardinals carry a 20.0% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Cardinals are trending up and Dodgers are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Tarik Skubal miss enough bats?
Tarik Skubal strikes hitters out at a 30.6% clip (96th percentile); Cardinals carry a 20.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · CardinalsTarik Skubal: 30.6% K rateCardinals: 20.0% K rateHigh confidence
Can Tarik Skubal limit Cardinals' power?
Cardinals rank in the 21st percentile in extra-base production, while Tarik Skubal sits in the 56th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Tarik SkubalCardinals: 0.331 TB/PATarik Skubal: 0.324 TB/PA allowed (500 PA)High confidence
Can Tarik Skubal command the strike zone?
Cardinals walk in 8.1% of trips; Tarik Skubal allows walks sparingly (4.2%).
Edge · Tarik SkubalCardinals: 8.1% walk rateTarik Skubal: 4.2% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Cardinals handle left-handers?
Cardinals have produced better against left-handers this season (0.339 vs. 0.331 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Cardinalsvs left-handers: 0.339 TB/PA (1694 PA)overall: 0.331 TB/PAModerate confidence

Pitcher Trends

Quinn Mathews
Quinn Mathews
St. Louis Cardinals · 4 starts
SP
Strikeouts5.0/start
Hits allowed5.8/start
7+ Strikeouts — 2 of last 45 or fewer Hits Allowed — 2 of last 4
22% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Tarik Skubal
Tarik Skubal
Los Angeles Dodgers · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts8.0/start
Hits allowed4.6/start
6+ Strikeouts — 6 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
31% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Nathan Church
Nathan Church
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.270 hit rate · 0.432 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2520 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 36% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
Los Angeles Dodgers · 0.283 hit rate · 0.391 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 25
On-base rate is up 32% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
Los Angeles Dodgers · 0.255 hit rate · 0.426 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L109 / 10L2519 / 259-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 33% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games.
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
Los Angeles Dodgers · 0.104 hit rate · 0.167 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 63% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
Alec Burleson
Alec Burleson
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.186 hit rate · 0.186 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L106 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games.
Enrique Hernandez
Enrique Hernandez
Los Angeles Dodgers · 0.200 hit rate · 0.200 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L258 / 21
Total bases per PA is down 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 47%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

75
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
1+ Hit
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
1+ Hit
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Teoscar Hernandez
Teoscar Hernandez
1+ Hit
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
70
Tommy Edman
Tommy Edman
1+ Hit
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Ivan Herrera
Ivan Herrera
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
JJ Wetherholt
JJ Wetherholt
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted

Expected Game Shape

UncertainLow confidence

Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Cardinals bring stronger recent momentum. Dodgers bring more power.

Early edge Dodgers Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Elevated
  • At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
  • Cardinals are trending up; Dodgers are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Does Dodgers' power tilt the game?
Dodgers bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Cardinals power pct 21 vs Dodgers 80
Can Shohei Ohtani snap out of it?
Shohei Ohtani has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 63% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
0.104 hit rate · 0.167 TB/PA · 0.239 hit rate · 0.454 TB/PA
Is Nathan Church the one to watch?
Nathan Church enters as Cardinals' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 36% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
0.270 hit rate · 0.432 TB/PA · 0.211 hit rate · 0.318 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-03, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.