St. Louis Cardinals
69-70 · 3rd in NL Central, 17 GB
Bats heating upBrycen Mautz
@
Los Angeles Dodgers
82-56 · 1st in NL West
Offense cooling latelyRHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto · High-strikeout arm · plus control
Team Identity
St. Louis Cardinals
Season-to-date, 139 games, 5,439 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerWell Below20
ContactAverage54
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg34
SpeedAverage60
RISPAverage48
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 14% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Season-to-date, 138 games, 5,415 PA.
An opportunistic, contact-oriented offense that cashes in scoring chances, though it can be station-to-station. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAbove Avg79
ContactElite95
Plate DisciplineElite89
SpeedBelow Avg25
RISPElite97
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 32% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Dodgers' offense is defined by being opportunistic, and this game tests whether Cardinals can match it.
Swing Factor
Cardinals rank in the 20th percentile in extra-base production, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto sits in the 78th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Cardinals are trending up and Dodgers are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Yoshinobu Yamamoto limit Cardinals' power?
Cardinals rank in the 20th percentile in extra-base production, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto sits in the 78th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Yoshinobu YamamotoCardinals: 0.330 TB/PAYoshinobu Yamamoto: 0.282 TB/PA allowed (617 PA)High confidence
Can Yoshinobu Yamamoto miss enough bats?
Yoshinobu Yamamoto strikes hitters out at a 24.8% clip (74th percentile); Cardinals carry a 20.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · CardinalsYoshinobu Yamamoto: 24.8% K rateCardinals: 20.0% K rateHigh confidence
Can Yoshinobu Yamamoto command the strike zone?
Cardinals walk in 8.1% of trips; Yoshinobu Yamamoto allows walks sparingly (5.8%).
Edge · Yoshinobu YamamotoCardinals: 8.1% walk rateYoshinobu Yamamoto: 5.8% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Cardinals handle right-handers?
Cardinals have produced worse against right-handers this season (0.325 vs. 0.330 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Yoshinobu Yamamotovs right-handers: 0.325 TB/PA (3752 PA)overall: 0.330 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Los Angeles Dodgers · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.6/start
Hits allowed4.2/start
5 or fewer Hits Allowed — 6 of last 68+ Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
25% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Nathan Church
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.242 hit rate · 0.424 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2519 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 33% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 6%.
Ramon Urias
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.143 hit rate · 0.429 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L258 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 64% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 7 games.
Blaze Jordan
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.263 hit rate · 0.474 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 43% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games.
Shohei Ohtani
Los Angeles Dodgers · 0.130 hit rate · 0.196 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 28%.
Alec Burleson
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.225 hit rate · 0.225 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L107 / 10L2519 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 48% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games.
Jose Fermin
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.182 hit rate · 0.273 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 252-game hit streak
On-base rate is down 42% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 18%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
75
Mookie Betts
1+ Hit
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Freddie Freeman
1+ Hit
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Jordan Walker
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Tommy Edman
1+ Hit
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
JJ Wetherholt
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Ivan Herrera
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
Expected Game Shape
UncertainLow confidence
Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Cardinals bring stronger recent momentum. Dodgers bring more power.
Early edge Dodgers Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Elevated
- At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
- Cardinals are trending up; Dodgers are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Does Dodgers' power tilt the game?
Dodgers bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Cardinals power pct 20 vs Dodgers 79
Is Nathan Church the one to watch?
Nathan Church enters as Cardinals' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 33% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 6%.
0.242 hit rate · 0.424 TB/PA · 0.211 hit rate · 0.318 TB/PA
Can Shohei Ohtani snap out of it?
Shohei Ohtani has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 28%.
0.130 hit rate · 0.196 TB/PA · 0.240 hit rate · 0.456 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-02, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.