Chicago Cubs
79-62 · 2nd in NL Central, 8 GB
Bats heating upLHP Shota Imanaga · High-strikeout arm · plus control
@
Miami Marlins
71-70 · 3rd in NL East, 12.5 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Janson Junk · Pitches to contact
Team Identity
Chicago Cubs
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,779 PA.
A power-hitting, patient offense that does damage on extra-base hits. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerElite97
ContactAverage65
Plate DisciplineElite96
SpeedAbove Avg77
RISPAbove Avg70
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 36% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Miami Marlins
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,540 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerBelow Avg28
ContactAverage55
Plate DisciplineAverage47
SpeedAbove Avg82
RISPBelow Avg38
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 10% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Marlins bring the more aggressive profile, while Cubs lean on being power-hitting.
Swing Factor
Cubs rank in the 97th percentile in extra-base production, while Janson Junk sits in the 28th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Cubs are trending up and Marlins are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Janson Junk limit Cubs' power?
Cubs rank in the 97th percentile in extra-base production, while Janson Junk sits in the 28th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · CubsCubs: 0.362 TB/PAJanson Junk: 0.373 TB/PA allowed (448 PA)High confidence
Can Janson Junk miss enough bats?
Janson Junk strikes hitters out at a 15.6% clip (11th percentile); Cubs carry a 20.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · CubsJanson Junk: 15.6% K rateCubs: 20.7% K rateHigh confidence
Can Janson Junk command the strike zone?
Cubs walk in 10.2% of trips; Janson Junk allows walks sparingly (6.2%).
Edge · Janson JunkCubs: 10.2% walk rateJanson Junk: 6.2% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Marlins handle left-handers?
Marlins have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.312 vs. 0.338 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Shota Imanagavs left-handers: 0.312 TB/PA (1536 PA)overall: 0.338 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Shota Imanaga miss enough bats?
Shota Imanaga strikes hitters out at a 23.5% clip (67th percentile); Marlins carry a 20.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · MarlinsShota Imanaga: 23.5% K rateMarlins: 20.9% K rateHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Shota Imanaga
Chicago Cubs · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.4/start
Hits allowed5.4/start
4+ Strikeouts — 6 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
24% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Janson Junk
Miami Marlins · 8 starts
Strikeouts2.8/start
Hits allowed4.8/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 6 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
16% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Tyrone Taylor
Chicago Cubs · 0.524 hit rate · 0.762 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 142% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 0%.
Michael Conforto
Chicago Cubs · 0.316 hit rate · 0.684 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 88% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 16%.
Matt Shaw
Chicago Cubs · 0.222 hit rate · 0.611 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 75% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 6%.
Griffin Conine
Miami Marlins · 0.121 hit rate · 0.121 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 73% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games.
Brian Navarreto
Miami Marlins · 0.067 hit rate · 0.067 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L102 / 10L253 / 19
Total bases per PA is down 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 5 games.
Michael Busch
Chicago Cubs · 0.111 hit rate · 0.244 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2515 / 25
Hit rate is down 45% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 31%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
80
Pete Crow-Armstrong
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
80
Seiya Suzuki
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
77
Alex Bregman
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
75
Otto Lopez
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Javier Sanoja
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
73
Heriberto Hernandez
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Cubs bring stronger recent momentum. Cubs bring more power.
Early edge Cubs Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Elevated
- Both probable starters grade around the 43rd percentile in combined suppression.
- Cubs are trending up; Marlins are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Does Cubs' power tilt the game?
Cubs bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Cubs power pct 97 vs Marlins 28
Is Tyrone Taylor the one to watch?
Tyrone Taylor enters as Cubs' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 142% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 0%.
0.524 hit rate · 0.762 TB/PA · 0.257 hit rate · 0.314 TB/PA
Can Griffin Conine snap out of it?
Griffin Conine has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 73% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games.
0.121 hit rate · 0.121 TB/PA · 0.226 hit rate · 0.453 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-04, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.