Sports Today Saturday, September 5
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 5, 2026
Chicago Cubs
80-62 · 2nd in NL Central, 8 GB
Bats heating up
RHP Javier Assad · Pitches to contact
@
Miami Marlins
71-71 · 3rd in NL East, 13.5 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Ryan Gusto · Command specialist
MLB · loanDepot park, hits run 5% below average here · 1:10 PM PT

Team Identity

Chicago Cubs
Season-to-date, 142 games, 5,823 PA.
A patient, power-hitting offense that works counts and draws walks. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Elite94
Contact
Above Avg66
Plate Discipline
Elite96
Speed
Above Avg77
RISP
Above Avg68
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 29% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Miami Marlins
Season-to-date, 142 games, 5,573 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Below Avg26
Contact
Average54
Plate Discipline
Average46
Speed
Above Avg82
RISP
Below Avg38
Recent Form
Trending Down
Hit rate is down 13% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Marlins bring the more aggressive profile, while Cubs lean on being patient.

Swing Factor

Cubs rank in the 94th percentile in extra-base production, while Ryan Gusto sits in the 30th percentile at suppressing total bases.

Momentum

Cubs are trending up and Marlins are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Ryan Gusto limit Cubs' power?
Cubs rank in the 94th percentile in extra-base production, while Ryan Gusto sits in the 30th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · CubsCubs: 0.362 TB/PARyan Gusto: 0.369 TB/PA allowed (301 PA)High confidence
Can Ryan Gusto command the strike zone?
Cubs walk in 10.2% of trips; Ryan Gusto allows walks sparingly (6.6%).
Edge · Ryan GustoCubs: 10.2% walk rateRyan Gusto: 6.6% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Javier Assad miss enough bats?
Javier Assad strikes hitters out at a 16.2% clip (14th percentile); Marlins carry a 20.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · MarlinsJavier Assad: 16.2% K rateMarlins: 20.9% K rateHigh confidence
Can Ryan Gusto miss enough bats?
Ryan Gusto strikes hitters out at a 18.9% clip (32nd percentile); Cubs carry a 20.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · CubsRyan Gusto: 18.9% K rateCubs: 20.6% K rateHigh confidence
How do Marlins handle right-handers?
Marlins have produced better against right-handers this season (0.347 vs. 0.337 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Marlinsvs right-handers: 0.347 TB/PA (4016 PA)overall: 0.337 TB/PAModerate confidence

Pitcher Trends

Javier Assad
Javier Assad
Chicago Cubs · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.6/start
Hits allowed4.4/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
16% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Ryan Gusto
Ryan Gusto
Miami Marlins · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.8/start
Hits allowed4.8/start
5 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
19% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Tyrone Taylor
Tyrone Taylor
Chicago Cubs · 0.524 hit rate · 0.762 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 142% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 0%.
Matt Shaw
Matt Shaw
Chicago Cubs · 0.222 hit rate · 0.611 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 75% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 6%.
Alex Bregman
Alex Bregman
Chicago Cubs · 0.311 hit rate · 0.733 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L108 / 10L2517 / 258-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 112% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 9%.
Esteury Ruiz
Esteury Ruiz
Miami Marlins · 0.100 hit rate · 0.100 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L259 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 71% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 40%.
Brian Navarreto
Brian Navarreto
Miami Marlins · 0.059 hit rate · 0.059 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L102 / 10L253 / 20
Total bases per PA is down 72% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 35%.
Joe Mack
Joe Mack
Miami Marlins · 0.174 hit rate · 0.174 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 53% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 35%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

80
Alex Bregman
Alex Bregman
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
78
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
75
Seiya Suzuki
Seiya Suzuki
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
74
Otto Lopez
Otto Lopez
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
72
Heriberto Hernandez
Heriberto Hernandez
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
69
Javier Sanoja
Javier Sanoja
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Batting 9th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Cubs bring stronger recent momentum. Cubs bring more power.

Early edge Cubs Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Elevated
  • Both probable starters grade around the 43rd percentile in combined suppression.
  • Cubs are trending up; Marlins are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Does Cubs' power tilt the game?
Cubs bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Cubs power pct 94 vs Marlins 26
Is Tyrone Taylor the one to watch?
Tyrone Taylor enters as Cubs' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 142% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 0%.
0.524 hit rate · 0.762 TB/PA · 0.257 hit rate · 0.314 TB/PA
Can Esteury Ruiz snap out of it?
Esteury Ruiz has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 71% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 40%.
0.100 hit rate · 0.100 TB/PA · 0.192 hit rate · 0.343 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-05, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.