Sports Today Sunday, September 6
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 6, 2026
Chicago Cubs
81-62 · 2nd in NL Central, 7 GB
Bats heating up
RHP Clay Holmes · Pitches to contact
@
Miami Marlins
71-72 · 3rd in NL East, 13.5 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Tyler Phillips · Pitches to contact
MLB · loanDepot park, hits run 5% below average here · 10:40 AM PT

Team Identity

Chicago Cubs
Season-to-date, 143 games, 5,868 PA.
A patient, power-hitting offense that works counts and draws walks. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Elite94
Contact
Above Avg69
Plate Discipline
Elite96
Speed
Above Avg75
RISP
Above Avg67
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 30% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Miami Marlins
Season-to-date, 143 games, 5,613 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Below Avg27
Contact
Average56
Plate Discipline
Average48
Speed
Above Avg78
RISP
Below Avg36
Recent Form
Trending Down
Hit rate is down 12% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Marlins bring the more aggressive profile, while Cubs lean on being patient.

Swing Factor

Marlins rank in the 27th percentile in extra-base production, while Clay Holmes sits in the 91st percentile at suppressing total bases.

Momentum

Cubs are trending up and Marlins are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Clay Holmes limit Marlins' power?
Marlins rank in the 27th percentile in extra-base production, while Clay Holmes sits in the 91st percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Clay HolmesMarlins: 0.337 TB/PAClay Holmes: 0.252 TB/PA allowed (330 PA)High confidence
Can Tyler Phillips command the strike zone?
Cubs walk in 10.3% of trips; Tyler Phillips allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.3%).
Edge · CubsCubs: 10.3% walk rateTyler Phillips: 9.3% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Tyler Phillips miss enough bats?
Tyler Phillips strikes hitters out at a 18.2% clip (27th percentile); Cubs carry a 20.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · CubsTyler Phillips: 18.2% K rateCubs: 20.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can Tyler Phillips limit Cubs' power?
Cubs rank in the 94th percentile in extra-base production, while Tyler Phillips sits in the 57th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · CubsCubs: 0.362 TB/PATyler Phillips: 0.323 TB/PA allowed (495 PA)High confidence
Can Clay Holmes miss enough bats?
Clay Holmes strikes hitters out at a 18.5% clip (29th percentile); Marlins carry a 20.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · MarlinsClay Holmes: 18.5% K rateMarlins: 20.9% K rateHigh confidence

Pitcher Trends

Clay Holmes
Clay Holmes
Chicago Cubs · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.5/start
Hits allowed4.5/start
6 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
18% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Tyler Phillips
Tyler Phillips
Miami Marlins · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.2/start
Hits allowed4.1/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
18% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Tyrone Taylor
Tyrone Taylor
Chicago Cubs · 0.524 hit rate · 0.762 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 142% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 0%.
Alex Bregman
Alex Bregman
Chicago Cubs · 0.304 hit rate · 0.717 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2517 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 108% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 9%.
Matt Shaw
Matt Shaw
Chicago Cubs · 0.200 hit rate · 0.550 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 58% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
Joe Mack
Joe Mack
Miami Marlins · 0.154 hit rate · 0.154 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 58% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 35%.
Xavier Edwards
Xavier Edwards
Miami Marlins · 0.133 hit rate · 0.133 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 58% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 4 games.
Owen Caissie
Owen Caissie
Miami Marlins · 0.059 hit rate · 0.059 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 84% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games.

Players Positioned to Succeed

79
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
79
Alex Bregman
Alex Bregman
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
73
Seiya Suzuki
Seiya Suzuki
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 2 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
71
Javier Sanoja
Javier Sanoja
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Batting 9th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
71
Nico Hoerner
Nico Hoerner
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
70
Kyle Stowers
Kyle Stowers
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate

Expected Game Shape

Power-orientedModerate confidence

Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Cubs bring stronger recent momentum. Cubs bring more power.

Early edge Cubs Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Elevated
  • Both probable starters grade around the 54th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Cubs are trending up; Marlins are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Does Cubs' power tilt the game?
Cubs bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Cubs power pct 94 vs Marlins 27
Is Tyrone Taylor the one to watch?
Tyrone Taylor enters as Cubs' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 142% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 0%.
0.524 hit rate · 0.762 TB/PA · 0.257 hit rate · 0.314 TB/PA
Can Joe Mack snap out of it?
Joe Mack has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 58% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 35%.
0.154 hit rate · 0.154 TB/PA · 0.207 hit rate · 0.369 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-06, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.