New York Mets
67-78 · 4th in NL East, 18 GB
Bats heating upRHP Robert Stock · Balanced starter
@
Miami Marlins
72-74 · 3rd in NL East, 13.5 GB
Bats heating upRHP Janson Junk · Pitches to contact
Team Identity
New York Mets
Season-to-date, 145 games, 5,604 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage49
ContactBelow Avg29
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg44
SpeedBelow Avg28
RISPBelow Avg37
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 17% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Miami Marlins
Season-to-date, 146 games, 5,729 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerBelow Avg29
ContactAverage55
Plate DisciplineAverage49
SpeedAbove Avg78
RISPBelow Avg40
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 6% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Marlins' offense is defined by being aggressive, and this game tests whether Mets can match it.
Swing Factor
Janson Junk strikes hitters out at a 15.8% clip (13th percentile); Mets carry a 21.8% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Mets are trending up and Marlins are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Janson Junk miss enough bats?
Janson Junk strikes hitters out at a 15.8% clip (13th percentile); Mets carry a 21.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · MetsJanson Junk: 15.8% K rateMets: 21.8% K rateHigh confidence
Can Robert Stock miss enough bats?
Robert Stock strikes hitters out at a 18.8% clip (31st percentile); Marlins carry a 20.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · MarlinsRobert Stock: 18.8% K rateMarlins: 20.9% K rateLow confidence
Can Robert Stock limit Marlins' power?
Marlins rank in the 29th percentile in extra-base production, while Robert Stock sits in the 45th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Robert StockMarlins: 0.338 TB/PARobert Stock: 0.346 TB/PA allowed (133 PA)Low confidence
Can Janson Junk limit Mets' power?
Mets rank in the 49th percentile in extra-base production, while Janson Junk sits in the 34th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · MetsMets: 0.342 TB/PAJanson Junk: 0.364 TB/PA allowed (467 PA)High confidence
How do Marlins handle right-handers?
Marlins have produced better against right-handers this season (0.347 vs. 0.338 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Marlinsvs right-handers: 0.347 TB/PA (4138 PA)overall: 0.338 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Robert Stock
New York Mets · 6 starts
Strikeouts4.2/start
Hits allowed5.3/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
19% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Janson Junk
Miami Marlins · 8 starts
Strikeouts2.9/start
Hits allowed4.5/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 6 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
16% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Brett Baty
New York Mets · 0.318 hit rate · 0.773 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 255-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 167% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 18%.
Jakob Marsee
Miami Marlins · 0.282 hit rate · 0.436 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 8%.
Graham Pauley
Miami Marlins · 0.150 hit rate · 0.550 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L259 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 102% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games.
Owen Caissie
Miami Marlins · 0.105 hit rate · 0.105 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L259 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 70% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 42%.
Esteury Ruiz
Miami Marlins · 0.176 hit rate · 0.235 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2510 / 25
On-base rate is down 31% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 41%.
Agustin Ramirez
Miami Marlins · 0.154 hit rate · 0.269 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L259 / 25
On-base rate is down 53% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
71
Javier Sanoja
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Liam Hicks
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
69
Francisco Lindor
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
67
Bo Bichette
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
67
Xavier Edwards
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
66
Otto Lopez
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Mets bring more power.
Early edge Marlins Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 34th percentile in combined suppression.
- Mets are trending up; Marlins are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Is Brett Baty the one to watch?
Brett Baty enters as Mets' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 167% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 18%.
0.318 hit rate · 0.773 TB/PA · 0.189 hit rate · 0.289 TB/PA
Can Owen Caissie snap out of it?
Owen Caissie has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 70% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 42%.
0.105 hit rate · 0.105 TB/PA · 0.188 hit rate · 0.353 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-09, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.