Sports Today Friday, September 4
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 4, 2026
San Francisco Giants
58-83 · 4th in NL West, 25.5 GB
Steady at the plate
Matt Wilkinson
@
New York Mets
63-77 · 5th in NL East, 20 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Nolan McLean · High-strikeout arm
MLB · Citi Field · 4:10 PM PT

Team Identity

San Francisco Giants
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,411 PA.
An opportunistic, power-hitting offense that cashes in scoring chances, though it can be free-swinging.
Power
Above Avg73
Contact
Above Avg68
Plate Discipline
Well Below18
Speed
Below Avg40
RISP
Above Avg81
Recent Form
Holding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.
New York Mets
Season-to-date, 140 games, 5,399 PA.
A below-league-average offense across most categories this season. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Below Avg41
Contact
Below Avg26
Plate Discipline
Below Avg44
Speed
Below Avg28
RISP
Below Avg29
Recent Form
Trending Down
Walk rate is down 20% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Giants' offense is defined by being opportunistic, and this game tests whether Mets can match it.

Swing Factor

Nolan McLean strikes hitters out at a 26.0% clip (82nd percentile); Giants carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Giants are holding steady and Mets are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Nolan McLean miss enough bats?
Nolan McLean strikes hitters out at a 26.0% clip (82nd percentile); Giants carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · GiantsNolan McLean: 26.0% K rateGiants: 20.8% K rateHigh confidence
Can Nolan McLean command the strike zone?
Giants walk in 7.2% of trips; Nolan McLean allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.2%).
Edge · Nolan McLeanGiants: 7.2% walk rateNolan McLean: 9.2% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Giants handle right-handers?
Giants have produced better against right-handers this season (0.368 vs. 0.357 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Giantsvs right-handers: 0.368 TB/PA (3859 PA)overall: 0.357 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Nolan McLean limit Giants' power?
Giants rank in the 73rd percentile in extra-base production, while Nolan McLean sits in the 81st percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Nolan McLeanGiants: 0.357 TB/PANolan McLean: 0.275 TB/PA allowed (662 PA)High confidence

Pitcher Trends

Nolan McLean
Nolan McLean
New York Mets · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts5.9/start
Hits allowed4.1/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
26% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers
San Francisco Giants · 0.286 hit rate · 0.612 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L109 / 10L2517 / 25
On-base rate is up 51% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 20%.
Jonah Cox
Jonah Cox
San Francisco Giants · 0.267 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
On-base rate is up 81% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 27%.
Brett Baty
Brett Baty
New York Mets · 0.286 hit rate · 0.429 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
Hit rate is up 52% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games.
Francisco Alvarez
Francisco Alvarez
New York Mets · 0.150 hit rate · 0.200 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2511 / 25
On-base rate is down 52% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 55%.
Luis Torrens
Luis Torrens
New York Mets · 0.118 hit rate · 0.118 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 67% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 29%.
A.J. Ewing
A.J. Ewing
New York Mets · 0.163 hit rate · 0.186 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 41% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games.

Players Positioned to Succeed

80
Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
79
Bryce Eldridge
Bryce Eldridge
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Carson Benge
Carson Benge
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
73
Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
67
Marcus Semien
Marcus Semien
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
66
Bo Bichette
Bo Bichette
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk

Expected Game Shape

UncertainLow confidence

Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Giants bring more power.

Early edge Mets Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Moderate
  • At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
  • Giants are trending steady; Mets are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Is Rafael Devers the one to watch?
Rafael Devers enters as Giants' hottest bat. On-base rate is up 51% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 20%.
0.286 hit rate · 0.612 TB/PA · 0.210 hit rate · 0.409 TB/PA
Can Francisco Alvarez snap out of it?
Francisco Alvarez has cooled off. On-base rate is down 52% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 55%.
0.150 hit rate · 0.200 TB/PA · 0.201 hit rate · 0.344 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-04, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.