San Francisco Giants
59-84 · 4th in NL West, 26.5 GB
Bats heating upCesar Perdomo
@
New York Mets
64-78 · 5th in NL East, 20 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Christian Scott · Elite strikeout stuff
Team Identity
San Francisco Giants
Season-to-date, 143 games, 5,493 PA.
An opportunistic, power-hitting offense that cashes in scoring chances, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAbove Avg80
ContactAbove Avg71
Plate DisciplineWell Below21
SpeedBelow Avg32
RISPElite86
Recent FormTrending Up
Walk rate is up 61% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
New York Mets
Season-to-date, 142 games, 5,477 PA.
A below-league-average offense across most categories this season. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAverage46
ContactBelow Avg26
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg42
SpeedBelow Avg28
RISPBelow Avg32
Recent FormTrending Down
Walk rate is down 13% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Giants' offense is defined by being opportunistic, and this game tests whether Mets can match it.
Swing Factor
Christian Scott strikes hitters out at a 27.0% clip (86th percentile); Giants carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Giants are trending up and Mets are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Christian Scott miss enough bats?
Christian Scott strikes hitters out at a 27.0% clip (86th percentile); Giants carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · GiantsChristian Scott: 27.0% K rateGiants: 20.8% K rateHigh confidence
Can Christian Scott command the strike zone?
Giants walk in 7.2% of trips; Christian Scott allows walks at a fairly typical rate (10.5%).
Edge · Christian ScottGiants: 7.2% walk rateChristian Scott: 10.5% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Christian Scott limit Giants' power?
Giants rank in the 80th percentile in extra-base production, while Christian Scott sits in the 66th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · GiantsGiants: 0.361 TB/PAChristian Scott: 0.304 TB/PA allowed (418 PA)High confidence
How do Giants handle right-handers?
Giants have produced better against right-handers this season (0.369 vs. 0.361 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Giantsvs right-handers: 0.369 TB/PA (3909 PA)overall: 0.361 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Christian Scott
New York Mets · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.0/start
Hits allowed4.5/start
6+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
27% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Rafael Devers
San Francisco Giants · 0.333 hit rate · 0.771 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L109 / 10L2518 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 85% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
Jonah Cox
San Francisco Giants · 0.312 hit rate · 0.438 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2511 / 252-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 72% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 22%.
Bryce Eldridge
San Francisco Giants · 0.265 hit rate · 0.429 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2519 / 252-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 35% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
Luis Robert Jr.
Baltimore Orioles · 0.118 hit rate · 0.118 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 29%.
Carson Benge
New York Mets · 0.190 hit rate · 0.214 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2519 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 44% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 29%.
Jung Hoo Lee
San Francisco Giants · 0.135 hit rate · 0.162 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L105 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 59% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 14%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
83
Rafael Devers
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
77
Bryce Eldridge
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
73
Luis Arraez
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Francisco Lindor
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
71
Carson Benge
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
66
Bo Bichette
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
UncertainLow confidence
Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Giants bring stronger recent momentum. Giants bring more power.
Early edge Giants Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Elevated
- At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
- Giants are trending up; Mets are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Is Rafael Devers the one to watch?
Rafael Devers enters as Giants' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 85% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
0.333 hit rate · 0.771 TB/PA · 0.211 hit rate · 0.418 TB/PA
Can Luis Robert Jr. snap out of it?
Luis Robert Jr. has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 29%.
0.118 hit rate · 0.118 TB/PA · 0.202 hit rate · 0.365 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-06, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.