Colorado Rockies
55-89 · 5th in NL West, 32.5 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Tomoyuki Sugano · Pitches to contact
@
New York Yankees
82-62 · 2nd in AL East, 4 GB
Bats heating upRHP Will Warren · Balanced starter
Team Identity
Colorado Rockies
Season-to-date, 144 games, 5,683 PA.
A power-hitting, opportunistic offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be free-swinging. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAbove Avg74
ContactAbove Avg69
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg25
SpeedAverage48
RISPAbove Avg74
Recent FormTrending Down
Walk rate is down 29% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
New York Yankees
Season-to-date, 144 games, 5,596 PA.
A power-hitting, patient offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAbove Avg74
ContactWell Below12
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg74
SpeedAverage64
RISPBelow Avg29
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 25% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Yankees' offense is defined by being power-hitting, and this game tests whether Rockies can match it.
Swing Factor
Tomoyuki Sugano strikes hitters out at a 13.6% clip (4th percentile); Yankees carry a 23.6% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Rockies are trending down and Yankees are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Tomoyuki Sugano miss enough bats?
Tomoyuki Sugano strikes hitters out at a 13.6% clip (4th percentile); Yankees carry a 23.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · YankeesTomoyuki Sugano: 13.6% K rateYankees: 23.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can Tomoyuki Sugano limit Yankees' power?
Yankees rank in the 74th percentile in extra-base production, while Tomoyuki Sugano sits in the 2nd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · YankeesYankees: 0.345 TB/PATomoyuki Sugano: 0.481 TB/PA allowed (580 PA)High confidence
Can Will Warren limit Rockies' power?
Rockies rank in the 74th percentile in extra-base production, while Will Warren sits in the 19th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · RockiesRockies: 0.359 TB/PAWill Warren: 0.394 TB/PA allowed (604 PA)High confidence
Can Will Warren miss enough bats?
Will Warren strikes hitters out at a 22.0% clip (56th percentile); Rockies carry a 22.1% strikeout rate.
Edge · RockiesWill Warren: 22.0% K rateRockies: 22.1% K rateHigh confidence
Can Will Warren command the strike zone?
Rockies walk in 8.0% of trips; Will Warren allows walks sparingly (7.8%).
Edge · Will WarrenRockies: 8.0% walk rateWill Warren: 7.8% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Tomoyuki Sugano
Colorado Rockies · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.5/start
Hits allowed6.8/start
6+ Hits Allowed — 5 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 6
14% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Will Warren
New York Yankees · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.8/start
Hits allowed5.4/start
6+ Hits Allowed — 4 of last 65 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
22% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Heliot Ramos
New York Yankees · 0.250 hit rate · 0.600 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2510 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 308% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
TJ Rumfield
Colorado Rockies · 0.349 hit rate · 0.581 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L1010 / 10L2519 / 2512-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 10 of his last 10 games.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.281 hit rate · 0.375 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2517 / 252-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 46% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 19%.
Trent Grisham
New York Yankees · 0.074 hit rate · 0.074 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 78% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 22%.
Connor Norby
Colorado Rockies · 0.175 hit rate · 0.175 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2517 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 59% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games.
George Lombard Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.136 hit rate · 0.182 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2515 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 44% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 36%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
82
Jake McCarthy
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
78
Ben Rice
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
TJ Rumfield
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Cody Bellinger
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
68
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
67
Cole Carrigg
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Yankees bring stronger recent momentum.
Early edge Yankees Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Elevated
- Both probable starters grade around the 33rd percentile in combined suppression.
- Rockies are trending down; Yankees are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Is Heliot Ramos the one to watch?
Heliot Ramos enters as Yankees' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 308% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
0.250 hit rate · 0.600 TB/PA · 0.088 hit rate · 0.147 TB/PA
Can Trent Grisham snap out of it?
Trent Grisham has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 78% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 22%.
0.074 hit rate · 0.074 TB/PA · 0.179 hit rate · 0.339 TB/PA
Can Yankees handle Tomoyuki Sugano's strikeout stuff?
Yankees have been a below-average contact team while Tomoyuki Sugano misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Yankees contact percentile: 12
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-09, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.