Atlanta Braves
84-57 · 1st in NL East
Bats heating upLHP Martín Pérez · Pitches to contact
@
Philadelphia Phillies
79-62 · 2nd in NL East, 5 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Zack Wheeler · Elite strikeout stuff
Team Identity
Atlanta Braves
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,457 PA.
A power-hitting, opportunistic offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAbove Avg83
ContactAverage65
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg29
SpeedBelow Avg40
RISPAbove Avg71
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 10% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Philadelphia Phillies
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,453 PA.
An opportunistic, aggressive offense that cashes in scoring chances. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAverage60
ContactAverage47
Plate DisciplineAverage46
SpeedAbove Avg73
RISPElite92
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 15% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Phillies bring the more opportunistic profile, while Braves lean on being power-hitting.
Swing Factor
Zack Wheeler strikes hitters out at a 28.7% clip (91st percentile); Braves carry a 21.0% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Braves are trending up and Phillies are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Zack Wheeler miss enough bats?
Zack Wheeler strikes hitters out at a 28.7% clip (91st percentile); Braves carry a 21.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · BravesZack Wheeler: 28.7% K rateBraves: 21.0% K rateHigh confidence
Can Zack Wheeler limit Braves' power?
Braves rank in the 83rd percentile in extra-base production, while Zack Wheeler sits in the 51st percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · BravesBraves: 0.360 TB/PAZack Wheeler: 0.336 TB/PA allowed (536 PA)High confidence
Can Martín Pérez miss enough bats?
Martín Pérez strikes hitters out at a 18.1% clip (27th percentile); Phillies carry a 21.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · PhilliesMartín Pérez: 18.1% K ratePhillies: 21.4% K rateHigh confidence
Can Zack Wheeler command the strike zone?
Braves walk in 7.5% of trips; Zack Wheeler allows walks sparingly (7.6%).
Edge · Zack WheelerBraves: 7.5% walk rateZack Wheeler: 7.6% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Phillies handle left-handers?
Phillies have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.334 vs. 0.347 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Martín Pérezvs left-handers: 0.334 TB/PA (1676 PA)overall: 0.347 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Martin Perez
Atlanta Braves · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.4/start
Hits allowed4.8/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
18% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Zack Wheeler
Philadelphia Phillies · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.6/start
Hits allowed5.1/start
6+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 66+ Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
29% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Sean Murphy
Atlanta Braves · 0.310 hit rate · 0.690 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2511 / 19
Total bases per PA is up 343% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 28%.
Ha-Seong Kim
Atlanta Braves · 0.286 hit rate · 0.333 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L257 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 507% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Atlanta Braves · 0.341 hit rate · 0.463 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 252-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 79% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 20%.
Brandon Marsh
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.103 hit rate · 0.103 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 74% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 28%.
Mike Yastrzemski
Atlanta Braves · 0.154 hit rate · 0.192 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L258 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 43% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 27%.
Matt Olson
Atlanta Braves · 0.146 hit rate · 0.250 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 46% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
83
Bryce Harper
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
80
Drake Baldwin
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
78
Ronald Acuna Jr.
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Ozzie Albies
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
69
Alec Bohm
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
67
Mauricio Dubon
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Braves bring stronger recent momentum. Braves bring more power.
Early edge Phillies Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Elevated
- Both probable starters grade around the 57th percentile in combined suppression.
- Braves are trending up; Phillies are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Is Sean Murphy the one to watch?
Sean Murphy enters as Braves' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 343% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 28%.
0.310 hit rate · 0.690 TB/PA · 0.133 hit rate · 0.156 TB/PA
Can Brandon Marsh snap out of it?
Brandon Marsh has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 74% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 28%.
0.103 hit rate · 0.103 TB/PA · 0.249 hit rate · 0.394 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-05, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.