Atlanta Braves
84-58 · 1st in NL East
Bats heating upRHP Tyler Mahle · Balanced starter
@
Philadelphia Phillies
80-62 · 2nd in NL East, 4 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Aaron Nola · High-strikeout arm
Team Identity
Atlanta Braves
Season-to-date, 142 games, 5,490 PA.
A power-hitting, opportunistic offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAbove Avg83
ContactAverage63
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg28
SpeedBelow Avg42
RISPAbove Avg71
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 6% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Philadelphia Phillies
Season-to-date, 142 games, 5,491 PA.
An opportunistic, aggressive offense that cashes in scoring chances. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAverage59
ContactAverage48
Plate DisciplineAverage48
SpeedAbove Avg75
RISPElite91
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 11% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Phillies bring the more opportunistic profile, while Braves lean on being power-hitting.
Swing Factor
Braves rank in the 83rd percentile in extra-base production, while Aaron Nola sits in the 6th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Braves are trending up and Phillies are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Aaron Nola limit Braves' power?
Braves rank in the 83rd percentile in extra-base production, while Aaron Nola sits in the 6th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · BravesBraves: 0.360 TB/PAAaron Nola: 0.434 TB/PA allowed (654 PA)High confidence
Can Aaron Nola miss enough bats?
Aaron Nola strikes hitters out at a 24.0% clip (70th percentile); Braves carry a 21.1% strikeout rate.
Edge · BravesAaron Nola: 24.0% K rateBraves: 21.1% K rateHigh confidence
Can Tyler Mahle limit Phillies' power?
Phillies rank in the 59th percentile in extra-base production, while Tyler Mahle sits in the 34th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · PhilliesPhillies: 0.347 TB/PATyler Mahle: 0.363 TB/PA allowed (529 PA)High confidence
Can Aaron Nola command the strike zone?
Braves walk in 7.5% of trips; Aaron Nola allows walks sparingly (7.8%).
Edge · Aaron NolaBraves: 7.5% walk rateAaron Nola: 7.8% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Tyler Mahle miss enough bats?
Tyler Mahle strikes hitters out at a 22.9% clip (61st percentile); Phillies carry a 21.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · Tyler MahleTyler Mahle: 22.9% K ratePhillies: 21.4% K rateHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Tyler Mahle
Atlanta Braves · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.0/start
Hits allowed4.6/start
7+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
23% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Aaron Nola
Philadelphia Phillies · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.1/start
Hits allowed5.2/start
7+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
24% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Sean Murphy
Atlanta Braves · 0.346 hit rate · 0.769 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2511 / 19
Total bases per PA is up 427% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 27%.
Ha-Seong Kim
Atlanta Braves · 0.250 hit rate · 0.292 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L256 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 431% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Atlanta Braves · 0.366 hit rate · 0.561 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 253-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 91% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 20%.
Matt Olson
Atlanta Braves · 0.106 hit rate · 0.191 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L105 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 59% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games.
Brandon Marsh
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.120 hit rate · 0.120 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 69% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games.
Bryson Stott
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.167 hit rate · 0.306 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2515 / 25
On-base rate is down 32% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 25%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
85
Bryce Harper
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
85
Ronald Acuna Jr.
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
82
Drake Baldwin
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
70
Ozzie Albies
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
70
Trea Turner
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Kyle Schwarber
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 2 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Braves bring stronger recent momentum. Braves bring more power.
Early edge Braves Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Elevated
- Both probable starters grade around the 42nd percentile in combined suppression.
- Braves are trending up; Phillies are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Is Sean Murphy the one to watch?
Sean Murphy enters as Braves' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 427% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 27%.
0.346 hit rate · 0.769 TB/PA · 0.125 hit rate · 0.146 TB/PA
Can Matt Olson snap out of it?
Matt Olson has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 59% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games.
0.106 hit rate · 0.191 TB/PA · 0.226 hit rate · 0.463 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-06, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.